14 July 2020

Herd Immunity - part the second

Way back in March one of these missives postulated that the evidence then available said that herd immunity was nothing like a slam dunk.

Now, about four months later, a medical heavyweight has published a piece laying out the history of Covid and related coronaviruses. It is not an endorsement of blue-sky herd immunity magic thinking.
[T]he facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will likely never be achieved for Covid-19 or any other coronavirus. We know this thanks to new research on the development and decline of Covid antibodies and from a wealth of epidemiological evidence on coronaviruses as a whole.

That leaves just a few ways out of this mess.

1 - vaccine immunity really is durable; I've seen no evidence one way or the other.

2 - the HIV approach of anti-viral cocktails; the prevalence of HIV and Covid aren't even in the same zip code, so making hundreds of millions of doses of multiple anti-virals doesn't sound appetizing. Assuming, naturally, that multiple effective anti-virals can be created. Since this is therapy, all those French kissing Covidiots will re-infect each other just about weekly forever. Good luck with that.

3 - ex-President AuH2O 2020 convinces an Elector College's worth of voters that Covid is just another daily risk like getting hit by a bus, so there's nothing that need be done. It worked before ("what have you got to lose?"). I'd wager, again, that the diversion of Covid reporting away from CDC to the Azar clan is the next step in defining Covid away.

4 - Americans finally get woke and go about life masked and distancing. In due time, Covid will be controlled. I'd wager that'll work in Blue and fail utterly in Red, just as we see with this second spike in the first wave. Since Election Day is November 3, may haps the catastrophe will become so severe in Red that even the knuckledraggers will get it. May haps not.

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