29 June 2020

Parallax View - part the twelfth [update]

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:
>= 1,000 - 347
100 to 999 - 1K (that's right, only room for 3 digits!)

Grand total of counties creeps up to 3,012. Oh joy. Not much territory left to invade.

Here's a bit from the third installment in this series:
And, his sphincter lickers in the Red States are inviting massive new infections by ending stay-at-home. Oh, yeah, they're going to have 'reduced' capacity orders. Yeah, I won't fart in your face.

Worked out just fine.

And, naturally (as predicted in these missives) once the Red States in God's Country faced the epidemic, which ex-President AuH2O 2020 and his enablers said wouldn't happen in God's Country of Real Americans, they would bleat for support. Starting about now.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, made clear Wednesday afternoon that he also opposes the federal withdrawal, saying that "now is not the time to retreat from our vigilance in testing."

Cornyn, you may know, is an extreme Right Wingnut. But not now, of course. His ox is being gored. Poor baby! Do what McConnell says, file for bankruptcy.

Now that CDC says that infections are as many as 10 times as been reported, why is it that ex-President AuH2O 2020 hasn't used that 'fact' to pronounce Covid under control? Deaths and infections from multiple sources calculate out to 5% death rate, way cool more than seasonal flu. Using this new number for infections brings it down to .5%, closer to in line with seasonal flu at .15%.

The most irritating event was hearing DeSantis cavil about the young people not being socially responsible. This is the same DeSantis that allowed the self-same young people to frolic on the beaches during Spring Break, who then went off to infect most of the USofA east of the Mississippi. Thanks Ron.

Another toggling exercise, using 29 June data/map. If you, once again, toggle 'Fastest Growing Counties' with the groups individually, you'll find (at least my eyes did, anyway) that you don't find overlap until the 100 to 999 (aka, 1K); upstate New York, the Carolinas, Gulf coast, Oklahoma, and Texas. The rest are in the >=1,000 group. That is not just some "embers", no matter what the Administration says.

26 June 2020

Dumb Jocks - part the second

While ex-President AuH2O 2020 fiddles, the rest of us burn. Perhaps he'll read up on what's happening to college football, the first sport to resume. Here's some of the news. If there ever were a case study in how geometric progression works, this is it.
Then, by June 12, the final group of 24 arrivals — largely freshmen — was tested. But just a week later, Kansas State shut down its workouts until at least mid-July after two positive cases in that final group morphed into four and then eight before leaping to 14, as nearly half the team needed to be checked again.

And, to no one's surprise, Red State bastions of organized collisions refuse to report:
There have been confirmed positive tests at 23 of the 130 F.B.S. schools, but some public schools — including Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina — have refused to release testing data of their athletes, claiming that federal laws prohibiting the release of students' personal information allow them to not release aggregated data.

Which, of course, is bullshit. And, of course, there's this bit of ex-President AuH2O 2020-ian deviousness:
Some schools have tried to insulate themselves from liability by requiring athletes returning to campuses for workouts to sign waivers acknowledging the risk of being infected — or in the case of at least one school, Southern Methodist, releasing it from any liability. (Kansas State did not have a waiver, but provided its protocols to players and their parents and asked for feedback.)

"Do you want fries and a MAGA hat with that?"

24 June 2020

Parallax View - part the tenth dot five

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:
25 to 99 - 812
 5 to 24 - 649
      <5 - 278

Grand total of counties passes the 3,000 mark: 3,004. Covid-19 has dominated the streets, from big cities to God's Country hamlets. "Donnie, you're doing a heckuva job."

22 June 2020

Parallax View - part the tenth [update]

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:
25 to 99 - 812
 5 to 24 - 649
      <5 - 278

Grand total of counties creeps up to 2,997. Oh joy. And the lowest group count drops by more than 40. And the two top groups, together, have increased by 84. As a result, it makes sense to shift the surveillance to the growth of the top groups, given that the lower level seedings have reached 97.6% of all counties/parishes. Not much territory left to invade.

So, here's the new baseline, going forward
  >= 1,000 - 308
100 to 999 - 950

Another informative exercise: enable just >=1,000 and Fastest Growing. Then toggle Fastest Growing and see how the two groups overlap. That might tighten your sphincter. Yes, there are a few Fastest Growing that aren't in the high-count group, but only a few.

16 June 2020

Death of an Island - part the second

What happens when an Island of fewer that 1,000 persons, which depends on about 20,000 visitors a day spending freely on touristy thingees like restaurant dining (mostly day-trippers) for the summer season, doesn't get anywhere near that volume of traffic? And what if the problem is that those visitors bring a pathogen which is capable of killing off, at least, most of the adult population? The Island news brings more pressure on the Island's viability. The state's governor just admonished those very day-trippers to take care with the Island residents; and themselves, but they're not likely to care about that anyway.
If you are seated next to someone, please keep your mask on. I know it's awkward, but it is something you need to do... We have to do better — do a little better. We don't want an outbreak on Block Island. They have very limited health care.

Will the volume of visitors peter off either because Islanders get sick from the visitors, and the Island has to close to some degree, if only because the staffs of the many tourist shops are sick. Or because self-centered day-trippers simply won't tolerate being told to mask-up indoors, and thus won't come over?

Tulsa city authorities are on record that The Very Unstable Lunatic's rally isn't such a good idea, given that infections are spiking in the city. The Very Unstable Lunatic doesn't give a shit. He wants his Hitler-esque 'Nuremberg Rallies'; smirking bathing in adulation. The Very Unstable Lunatic demands a Covid waiver from his sheep going to the rally, but what about Tulsans? What about the cities and towns to which the sheep return? Did all of those folks agree to be exposed to Covid? Fascism at its finest.

Here we have in macrocosm the larger problem faced by the USofA, and, of course, the entire planet. Covid recognizes no boundaries; water, city, state, or country. It goes wherever the humans go. The stupidity of the Southern Red States will spread the virus back into the Blue States which have taken the steps to mitigate the disease. Just as the Florida Spring Break Covidiots did to the eastern USofA. It should come as no surprise that Texas and Florida are leading the pack of Covid deniers, in league with The Very Unstable Lunatic, who is totally denying the existence of Covid.

The Very Unstable Lunatic's ploy that Covid is the state's individual responsibility is just his passive-aggressive avoidance of responsibility. The one who claimed that battling Covid made him a "war president" against this viral "invader"; but not including taking any useful national action, of course. Doing so spends money he'd rather hand out as tax cuts to his wealthy clique. This will not end well for Block Island or the USofA, even if voters dump The Very Unstable Lunatic in November; the major second wave will be well under way.

15 June 2020

Parallax View - part the ninth

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:
25 to 99 - 810
 5 to 24 - 663
      <5 - 323

As in the past few weeks, the smaller sized counties continue to climb the totem pole; they ain't goin away and they ain't many empty ones to add, so they have to go up. The 1,000+ count is up to 276, from 254 just last week. And, which is more ominous, the 100 to 999 group is up to 907 from 852. The three group total is 1,993, while the grand total goes up just a tad to 2,979, leaving just a smidgen to the county total. Covid will be behind us by Memorial Day. Mikey said so.

11 June 2020

Dumb and Dumbers

One of the ways to get rid of The Very Unstable Lunatic is to kill off his base. Nasty, but effective. Who knew that The Very Unstable Lunatic would make the process easier?
By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.; BOK Center; ASM Global; or any of their affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, contractors, or volunteers liable for any illness or injury.

One might expect that such will be required for all of his sausage fests. We might also expect that the most ardent zealots, convinced that God will protect them from the Chinese Virus, will attend. One can hope that God with give them all the Cosmic Finger.

08 June 2020

Pictures as Data

A recurring theme of these missives is that fancy inferential methods, frequentist or silly Bayesian, are oft times not only not needed, but simply the wrong approach. Oft times, just looking out the window will tell you what the weather is. Lo and behold, pictures tell us much about Covid-19.
Satellite images of hospital parking lots in Wuhan as well as internet search trends, show the coronavirus may have been spreading in China as early as last August, according to a new study from Harvard Medical School.

Both sophisticated and simple at the same time. Similar, in intent, to excess death analysis. And, just by the way, these researchers used public satellite imaging. Imagine, if you will, what the Intelligence Community imaging was revealing in the same time period. In other words, the IC told The Very Unstable Lunatic's minions what was happening months before it's been admitted.
"Both the idea that hospital parking lots or business can be used can be a relative indicator for something happening in a population," Brownstein said. "We actually published on this years ago where we showed that hospitals in Latin America got super busy during flu season. You could predict flu season just by looking at the parking lots."

A nice way of saying that this isn't their first rodeo.

Parallax View - part the eighth

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:
25 to 99 - 820
 5 to 24 - 680
      <5 - 351

Some might look at these numbers and see that they've gone down over the last few weeks. Well, only sort of. The two lower groups have gone down, but there's some problems. As each previous week, 1,000 and up continues to rise, now 254. The county total also rises, to 2,957, ever smaller difference to total counties. What's more important, one might surmise, is that the next two groups (25 to 999) come to 1,672, which puts the total of the top three groups to more than half of counties. Like an old-fashioned coffee pot, Covid percolates right along. Yeah, as Mike said, "by Memorial Day weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us". If you do look at the map, one might reasonably conclude that the South will rise again. One might also discern a pincer movement against the Great Plains, the greater southeast moving west-northwest and the pacific marching east. And don't be fooled by the apparent safety of the east face of the Rockies, it is just empty mountain, after all.

And for our next contestent, we have another seeding, at least as bad as the Florida Covidiots
Oklahoma State linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga, one of the three players, announced on Twitter he had tested positive after attending a protest in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

After attending a protest in Tulsa AND being well protective of myself, I have tested positive for COVID-19. Please, if you are going to protest, take care of yourself and stay safe.
— Amen Ogbongbemiga (@closedprayer) June 3, 2020

Just one of many such situations. We'll see if the seeds sprout in a couple of weeks.

Not to forget the throngs in cities big and small continuing to protest police misconduct. Lots of masks, but lots of not-masks on the teeVee news. The pundits have predicted new clusters over the next couple of weeks. It would be foolish to disagree.

06 June 2020

Are You Smarter Than a Canadian?

Another piece you have to read. Smarts always work out better than dumb. And Canadians are so nice, eh?
While Ontario and Quebec, the two most populous provinces, are still grappling with hundreds of new cases every day, British Columbia has now reopened schools, restaurants and hair salons. This week, the province of five million reported fewer than 80 new cases.

"By all rights, British Columbia should have been clobbered," said Colin Furness, an outspoken infection control epidemiologist in Toronto. The province is on the coast, above Washington State, he noted, with a large population that travels back and forth to China, where the outbreak began.

"They took decisive action, did it early without hesitation and communicated effectively," Mr. Furness added. "People listened to her."

You nip it in the bud, and things turn out a bit better. The Very Unstable Lunatic won't spend a dime unless it's for his direct benefit; passive aggressive is his M.O.

05 June 2020

What's Wrong with a Thumb on the Scales?

As the crooks know, the easiest way to win is to cheat. It's obvious that Census took pity on, or fear of, The Very Unstable Lunatic with the just release May employment numbers.

BLS/Census reported 2,500,000 new jobs in May. Contrast that with what ADP reported days earlier, a decrease of 2,760,000. Someone's thumb is on the scales. The difference is 5,260,000, which is not just some sampling error. According to FRED last year,
Thus, the ADP report differed from the BLS number by 158,000. This difference was one of the largest in 14 years, relative to forecast errors in months outside of U.S. recessions.

ADP has no dog in this fight, but The Very Unstable Lunatic certainly does.

01 June 2020

Parallax View - part the seventh

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:
25 to 99 - 787
 5 to 24 - 730
      <5 - 381

1,000 and more continues to creep up, now 233. In particular if you show only 1,000 and 100 to 999, you can see the creep throughout the Red South. Even without the density of NYC or Chicago (LA is sprawl, so is more like the South; wait... it is south), the Red South is turning redder by the day. Soon, they'll get really needy and beg to The Very Unstable Lunatic, 'Save us, Dear Leader!!'. And, of course, The Very Unstable Lunatic and Moscow Mitch will send Billions and Billions of dollars their way.

Further, the mountain West is bigly joining the party, even with Nebraska, et al, refusing to report full information. Kind of like Putin's Russia, you betcha. The only areas reporting no activity are the empty parts of Montana and Utah. I guess that's all there is of God's Protected Country. Or, may be, there's only empty prairie, bare mountains, and some cattle?

Total infected counties is now 2,937, up from last week's 2,918. Still ain't many counties left untouched; we're a few tens away from the total in about 12 weeks. And much of what's recently getting sucked into infection are counties with rural healthcare, a marginal resource in normal times. As Mikey (24 April) said, "If you look at the trends today, I think by Memorial Day Weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us." Mikey likes it! Innumerate and science denying is not the smartest way to deal with a science problem.