16 July 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the thirteenth

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

It can now be revealed that A. Corres Pondent is the nom deFakeNews of Mitch Smith and Julie Bosman whose report today, laggard though it be (dead trees version), confirms the fact:
"I hope and pray that it doesn't come to West Virginia and just absolutely runs across our state like wild," said Gov. Jim Justice, whose state has recorded relatively few cases recently but has a low vaccination rate. "But the odds are it will."
Of course, he used to be a Democrat, so there's that to consider.

Let's look at the bottom 5, as of today, compared to where they were on 14 May
             cases    per 100K
Louisiana      1,500     24 
Wyoming 124 15
Arkansas 1,309 33
Mississippi 557 13
Alabama 1,398 14
[14 May]
             cases    per 100K
Louisiana      421    10 
Wyoming 83 12
Arkansas 383 8 [entered 24 June]
Mississippi 201 8
Alabama 285 6
The Alabama 14 May data hasn't been cleaned up, so this is still the 7-day average cases.

So in all, A. Corres Pondent got it right. If one reads deeply of the Fake News, the worst is yet to come. Remember Ronny VirusSeed©'s Spring Break Infectiathon (28 March 2020) from Spring Break 2020? Same shit going on in the Redneck states still. Still no cure for stupid.

"a pandemic of the unvaccinated" -- Dr. Rochelle Walensky/16 July 2021

13 July 2021

Boeing Boeing - part the fourteenth

Apparently not among these many missives, but somewhere out in the innterTubes going back some years, I've pointed to issues with the 787 fuselage construction: all plastic and glue. And, naturally, the incompetent Redneck South Carolina staff that Boeing built to avoid unions. Well, the chickens have, again, come home to roost.
The company said some of the planes' fuselage was not joined together to meet precise standards and there are questions about the verification process to make sure they meet the standards.
Cool!! The Dreamliner could come apart at Angels 35! Not just today, of course.
[T]hese newly discovered lapses potentially stretch back "almost a decade" and involve "nonconforming" sections of the rear fuselage of multiple 787 Dreamliner aircraft.
And, of course, Boeing is putting all 787 production in the hands of the Redneck Morons!! In due time there will be an episode of "Air Disasters" documenting these planes falling apart in mid-air.

12 July 2021

Fucker Carlson

Carlson recently bloviated that the median age-at-death for Covid was greater than median life expectancy. Yet another case of 'figures don't lie, but liars figure'.

Not that he just made an honest mistake, of course.

Median life expectancy at birth isn't what matters in the case of a Covid comparison. What matters is life expectancy of someone who's already kind of old; let's say 65.
- in 2018, men 65 have an expected life time of 18.1 years, or 83.1 in toto.
- the quoted median age (by Fucker) of Covid deaths in Ohio is 80.
- the median life expectancy (by Fucker) is 73; this is the 'at birth' value and thus includes (is reduced by) all early deaths.

Ergo, Fucker Carlson is a lying moron. It is also true that Delta is killing off non-Geezers unlike Original Covid and other variants.

08 July 2021

Thought For The Day - 8 July 2021

Back in June, I was spitballing a bit through the notion that the desiccated Southwest would soon demand a water pipeline from the verdant New England lakes, rivers, and reservoirs to their deserts. Spitballing, it turns out, that wasn't far from the truth.
"Stop the flooding on the east coast, put that [Mississippi river] water in a pipeline and deliver it to the west coast where we have a drought," Dunn said.
Now, last time I looked, the Mississippi isn't part of the East Coast, and the actual East Coast, apart from the state of Florida, isn't prone to flooding. And, as one expert pointed out
Bahr says that's because the flooding along the Mississippi Delta is part of the area's ecosystem, and also fertilizes the land along the river for farming.

"And then on our end, whenever you introduce a different type of water you have all types of potential for introducing invasive species, different water chemistry. You know the list goes on," Bahr said.
Who cares about Midwest family farms, anyway? Have I mentioned that Nestle has owned Poland Spring (through buying up Perrier who had earlier bought it) for some decades? I guess water isn't a public good.

03 July 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the twelfth

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[update 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[update 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
[update 11 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 
Louisiana 228 7
Alabama 188 5
Wyoming 103 12
Idaho 118 6
[update 15 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 
Louisiana 559 8
Alabama 290 5
Wyoming 68 11
Idaho 89 5
[update 18 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    244     4 
Louisiana 326 6
Alabama 334 4
Wyoming 65 9
Idaho 0 4
[update 25 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    243     4 
Louisiana 210 6
Alabama 540 4
Wyoming 104 11
Idaho 83 5
[update 2 July; swap in Arkansas]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    242     6 
Louisiana 525 9
Alabama 315 4
Wyoming 92 12
Arkansas 494 16
This is the last scheduled update, as promised. Further Cheatin Hearts will be presented if extraordinary data, better or worse, should emerge. As of today, it sure looks like the Two Americas meme has yet another vector; get the shot(s) and survive or not and die.

[update 28 June]
Well, we have more data on the Bottom Five. One replacement, but I'll take solace in the fact that four of the five remain in the Bottom. Consistency is the mark of a small mind.
According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 46.1% of the total US population has been vaccinated against Covid-19. Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Wyoming are among the states with the lowest vaccination rates, with less than 35% of their population fully vaccinated.
Idaho was the fifth at the beginning, thence Tennessee, and now Arkansas. That they're all now Southern Rebel Red States, is another hallmark of consistency. Good on ya.
Despite an increasing number of hospitalizations, [Arkansas governor Asa] Hutchinson said he does not think strict limitations are needed again to prevent the spread of the virus because people are more informed of how they should act. However, he did not rule out imposing any restrictions.
Let the Social Darwinist approach go full boar.

Substituting Arkansas for Idaho over the period of these missives, we see the following.

[14 May data start]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6
Wyoming 83 12
Arkansas 250 8
[update 24 June, Arkansas only]
             cases    per 100K
Arkansas       383     8 
[update 2 July]
Well, it looks like The South Has Risen Again.
In Arkansas, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the nation, cases are surging, officials said. In Los Angeles County, where the vaccination rate is slightly above the national average, officials warned about a possible new wave of infections, especially given the rapid spread of the Delta variant.

"We are now going in the wrong direction yet again with Covid-19 infections here in the state of Arkansas," said Dr. Cam Patterson, chancellor at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, during the state's weekly briefing Tuesday.
[my emphasis]
And, as one would expect
"Looking state by state and county by county, it is clear that communities where people remain unvaccinated are communities that remain vulnerable," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday. "This is all true as we monitor the continued spread of the hyper-transmissible Delta variant."
To plagiarize the Granite State motto, "Live Free or Die", well OK
The state saw 988 Covid-19 deaths since late January, and 99.6% of those deaths were people who were not vaccinated, Hutchinson added. In the same time period, more than 98% of those hospitalized with Covid-19 were not vaccinated.
It appears that A. Corres Pondent was just two weeks too soon. Well within the bounds of stat sig, in my opinion. There's no cure for stupid, or fealty to Batshit J. Moron.

[update 3 July]
Over the last few weeks there have been a flood of reports about how Australia has devolved from a paragon of Covid success to a shithole country ravaged by Covid thanks to Delta; of course, 'ravaged' is relative. This is today's version.
Three days after the emergence of a rare Covid-19 case in Sydney, around 40 friends gathered for a birthday party. Along with cake and laughter, there was a hidden threat: One of the guests had unknowingly crossed paths with that single Covid case, an airport driver who had caught the Delta variant from an American aircrew.

Two weeks later, 27 people from the party have tested positive, including a 2-year-old child, along with 14 close contacts. And the seven people at the gathering who were not infected? They were all vaccinated.
Latest estimate is that ~25% of Covid in the USofA is Delta. Australia has learned, yet again, that geometric progression only looks slow at the beginning. That's why and how they managed to keep Covid in check before the vaccines were available: at the first sign of infections, clamp down. And it worked. And they tried it again when Delta appeared, but now
New South Wales avoided a full lockdown during previous Covid outbreaks, including a cluster last December that was curbed with three weeks of suburb-specific restrictions. This time, Gladys Berejiklian, the state premier, tried a similar tactic, but found that Delta moved too quickly to be contained.
[my emphasis]
All you Red State Rebels be warned, yet again, your insistence on 'personal freedom' is going to kill your tribe.

27 June 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the eleventh

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[update 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[update 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
[update 11 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 
Louisiana 228 7
Alabama 188 5
Wyoming 103 12
Idaho 118 6
[update 15 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 
Louisiana 559 8
Alabama 290 5
Wyoming 68 11
Idaho 89 5
[update 18 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    244     4 
Louisiana 326 6
Alabama 334 4
Wyoming 65 9
Idaho 0 4
[update 25 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    243     4 
Louisiana 210 6
Alabama 540 4
Wyoming 104 11
Idaho 83 5
[update 22 June]
Well, our candidates for a Darwin Award continue to appear. No suprise, all from Red Rebel states.
Low vaccination rates are dangerous when combined with the spread of variants like Delta, which is believed to be more transmissible and cause more serious illness. Steve Edwards, CEO of CoxHealth, a healthcare system in Springfield, Missouri, told CNN the combination is to blame for a six-fold increase in hospitalizations in his system.
Early on, it was recognized that Covid spread was just as effective with lots of small groups as it was for a few large groups. That data point continues to appear.
Researchers used private insurance data from 6,535,987 individuals living in 2,926,530 households between January 1 and November 8, 2020. They compared Covid-19 infections between households with and without a birthday in the previous two weeks, adjusting for household size.

They found that households were more likely to have confirmed Covid-19 cases two weeks after a birthday. The risk was even higher when the birthday was for a child, the study reported.
[update 23 June]
May be you recall the plaint by the anti-vaxxers that the various vaccines, the mRNA versions in particular, are killers, among other naughty things. I always have wondered why the anti-vaxxer clan, generally Right Wingnut Trumpsters, would be so Socialist to warn us Gullible Snowflakes that we're putting our lives and our clan in Mortal Danger. I mean, that's just another way to squelch the Snowflake Vote, isn't it? Shouldn't keeping their yaps shut be the smarter course? Of course it is.

As asserted here many times, the Cheats will end up being the Body Bag Clan, you betcha. (Whether this is obvious in A. Corres Pondent's timeframe is a different issue.) Today brings more news in this vein.
"Covid-19 vaccines are available for everyone ages 12 and up," US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a White House briefing Tuesday. "They are nearly 100% effective against severe disease and death -- meaning nearly every death due to Covid-19 is particularly tragic, because nearly every death, especially among adults, due to Covid-19 is at this point entirely preventable."

Those still dying from Covid-19 in the US are "overwhelmingly" unvaccinated, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN's Jake Tapper.
As that old adage goes, "there's no cure for stupid". And they won't vote. Well, one hopes.

Last but one of the weekly updates. More states increasing than decreasing. Who'd a thunk it?

23 June 2021

Kind of a Putz

Regular reader may recall the various times these missives have asserted that one can measure material progress of humanity writ large by cataloging the entries into the periodic table. And, by contradiction, the slow down in invention since the periodic table was completed; at least of the stable natural elements. That observation was, sort of, contradicted by pointing out that organic chemistry is different, in that polymerization supports molecules of, I will suppose, infinite size and number based on carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and the occasional Other. Better living through Plastics, that "one word, Daniel".

Today's NYT offers an obituary of a signal organic chemist, who devised new catalytic processes that have made it possible to attach new Others to the base elements.
Traditionally, organic chemists largely limited themselves to molecules using the 10 or so elements found in organic compounds. Dr. Negishi said that he and others had "realized that we should make sure of the entire periodic table."
From my fingers to God's ear.

As to the title of this missive, it turns out that Negishi was in it for the Nobel. And he carried the medallion in his wallet!
"When he got his Nobel Prize, he became nicer," Dr. Tour said. "He'd take his wallet out of his pocket, and protruding from his wallet was the Nobel Prize medallion."

Dr. Tour said Dr. Negishi would pass the medal around and wouldn't mind if someone dropped it. "You could see the ding in one side of it," Dr. Tour said. "And he just laughed about it."