TAM

For those not knee deep in bidnezz, that's total addressable market. If you're not some scammer or grifter (hard to find such, given these days of Grifter In Chief ), then the first thing you do when you want to move some new (or importantly updated) widget into Mr. Market is figure out how many end users (aka, buyers) you expect exist. In the pharma world these days, drug companies are actually looking for a TAM that's tiny thanks to Uncle Sugar, who passes on some substantial benefit to them if FDA approves a drug for very limited number (200,000 ... well sorta, kinda) of patients. Although gaming continues as ever. This is one segment of the economy where the TAM is sorta, kinda explicit. And being 'small' is good.

For AI, as currently implemented, it's a bit different. And that difference has been recited here a bit. And it matters, given that Big Tech is spending some non-trivial Billions of Bongo Bucks on hardware (data centres) alone. Who are the patients to be served? Do they have, taken as a whole, enough Bongo Bucks to recoup all those trillions of Bongo Bucks, plus a bit of profit? Here's a recent assessment. As predicted in these missives, the arithmetic looks awful. And, some of the tech bros are worried.

At one point this year, Meta internally projected that it could spend as much as $10 billion annually on Anthropic's A.I. models, said two of the people, who declined to be identified discussing private information. That would have formed a major chunk of Anthropic's yearly revenue, which the start-up estimated in July would pass $65 billion.

Now, that cash flow is wonderful for Anthropic and all of the AI vendors out there. But Meta, and Google, and Microsoft, and the like are buying what we econ types call 'producers' goods'; IOW, stuff that the buyer turns around and uses to make some finished good which Americans on Main Street, Anytown, USofA actually pay for. Well, Meta et al, ain't selling any new thing to Americans on Main Street. Remember, so far as Meta goes, the user is the actual product, sold to advertisers. Microsoft, is more or less, the exception (no one uses Bing).

As of April 2024, Bing holds the position of the second-largest search engine worldwide, with a market share of 3.64%, behind Google's 90.91%.

So, where is the flood of Bongo Bucks to make it all worthwhile? It's a verity that Real Producers always bitch and moan about the Bean Counters ruining the party. I suspect the Real Producers will lickety split concoct some tale to blame the Bean Counters when it all goes Pop.

Mr. Zuckerberg has described Hatch as Meta's next breakthrough, a personal "agent" that works "24/7 on your behalf to help achieve your goals and improve your life, your health, your relationships, your finances."

(By the way, what was the last New Product that Meta made that was a Bigly Win? Just asking for a friend.)

OK. A semblance of recognizing that somewhere, somehow a real live Human (American or otherwise) will use an AI derived service/product. But will such a Human pay a user's fee for the privilege? And, if so, how much? Or does The Zuck assume that Hatch will somehow, some way entice his real customers, advertisers, to pay more and more often? In either case will end users or advert makers generate enough new revenue to make it all make sense? How would you bet on Kalshi?

It's been mentioned here and there that, given existing accounting rules, all this data centre spending is hidden in corporate capital budgets. IOW, very little of it hits their current financials. There will be a reckoning and there will be blood.

Thought For The Day - 28 August 2026

The hits keep coming. More like attack drones than top 10 songs, though. Latest grift

Companies Can Tell Investors Less Under Proposed S.E.C. Rules

Insiders can make an even bigly boodle. Won't take long for Grifter In Chief to trade ever more eagerly. And, of course, his best billionaire buddies. The USofA is looking more and more like any Eastern Europe -stan.

I Told You So - 27 August 2026

Well... you've heard it before: people vote with their feet. I heard it from Dr. McElhone in an earlier, less nasty, shrinking of the Damn Gummint. Here's a longish piece on the ongoing exodus.

"I used to live in the country that I thought was the most enthusiastic about the prospects for science improving the human condition, of any country in the world," said Phillip Zamore, the chair of RNA Therapeutics Institute at the University of Massachusetts. "And I woke up one day and that wasn't true anymore."

Not quite Jewish brainiacs fleeing Germany in the 30s, but just you wait. If the The Gang of Six^© stall long enough to let Kim Don-Felon and his Merry Band of Fascists (so says this Tesla investor) let only Rednecks vote, there won't be a educated person left here. That your average Redneck has neither birth certificate (and likely no idea who his Baby Daddy is) nor passport won't forestall the local vote folks from letting Billy Joe Bob from making his X on the registration card.

Thought For The Day - 25 August 2026

While I've not seen or heard from any of the usual Lamestream Pundits opining what Kim Don-Felon and his Merry Band of Fascists (so says this Tesla investor) might be up to with the escalating tariff war with Canada. For myself, it's self evident. Bone Spur Samurai^© is taking the next step to annexing Canada. And to be careful: just one huge state, not one per province, of course. Alberta is just dumb enough to go full MAGA, but not the rest. And let's not touch the language issue. Spanglish all over here, and now French? This is really a white belly English place, as everybody knows.

Here's his deal: we'll tariff Canada into bankruptcy. Or they can become the 51^st state. Take it or leave it. Can Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson pull it off while he's still alive, kicking, and El Jefe? May be, or may be not. But it doesn't matter. Jared will carry on the dynasty and git er done.

Thought For The Day - 11 August 2026

So far, none of the Lamestream Press (that I know about) has raised the really important point: MAGA is breaking as we watch. Supposedly close allies in his retinue are giving up the dumb fuck without even thinking about it. Hiding in a catering cart!! Except, of course, that isn't true and makes Garfield 2.0 (a step closer) much more likely. It was a catering container; not nearly as cramped. But, if you go looking, you'll find AI deepfakes of him squished into an aircraft cart. The palace guard is turning.

Thought For The Day - 10 August 2026

There's been a tsunami of ink spilled on AI and data centers of late. But I've not run across the nasty issue: if MAGAnauts write the laws and rules such that Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson and his successors get control of AI, then truth (social!!) goes out the window. Just as with crypto: he was agin it until someone (Miller??) whispered in his ear - "you can make billions!! the greatest grift of all time!!" And so it was. Everything will be MAGApropaganda 24/7. Just like Orwell predicted. Ayatollah 49% Don^© has done so much to eliminate truth and intelligence already. So, not only the billions, but full control of the population. Just like Kim and Putin and Hitler and Mao. What to give the dictator who has everything.

I Told You So - 10 August 2026

Dedicated readers must recall how these missives have excoriated the decline of the econ world over the years, pointing to Samuelson as the (nearly) patient zero of the epidemic. What Samuelson and his followers have done is to re-define macro as just the sum of the micro, with no account for how the Damn Gummint can do favor, or ill, to either the whole economy or corruptly favor (ill) supporters or opponents. One need go no further than Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson to see this in action. And, of course, he claims top grades and honors from Wharton, while there is no record of him earning any such. He only spent his last two years there (after only getting into Fordham, easy commuter school in NYC) getting a BBA (or a BS, reports vary) in something (no longer offered) called Real Estate Economics (reports vary as to whether it's explicitly Wharton or just Penn). IOW, he don't know shit from shinola in any kind of serious econ. Although, being a bigly builder (well... once a long time ago), he demands easy money. After all, Other People's Money most always pays the bill.

The contribution of Samuelson et al is said to be more "rigour" in the discipline. But what that really means is that econ is just micro, aka, business unit. The good thing about micro, is that it's data rich (or, should be) since a business has all the records of its activity. Ya don't need no damn lying statistics when you have a population dataset. But that does allow one to concoct all manner of "mathematical models" of business activity. And, of course, it doesn't surprise that the micronauts then make the leap to re-define macro as just aggregate micro.

But, of course, FDR and his cabal did understand that the Damn Gummint can be a significant economic actor, for both good and ill. Ill, mostly, means inflation, but can also mean tipping the scale for and against the blessed and the cursed; as seen by the Damn Gummint. And now we have it codified by The Gang of Six^© that POTUS is the Damn Gummnit, ya know Fascist Dictator. What could possibly go wrong? Well... the specter of a Guns n Butter great recession is coming toward front of mind for the Bond Vigilantes.

Well... just as Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson denies elections can be fair and accurate, when he or his lose, the fact that most macro data is survey sample based is the opportunity to deny that any macro decision need be based on data which is obviously manipulated by communists. It's all fake, anyway. It's simpler and better to just reward my benefactors and jail my opponents; just like Marcos and the like. We'll win no matter what the data ends up saying. And, if it says the whole exercise was bogus, there's always Fake News to shoulder the blame. Bari will see to it.

Now we get some views from a Harvard econ prof (which Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson never could be) that Warsh is up to his ass in shit. Well... he doesn't really say "shit". But that's clearly what he means.

Consider the call for better data. Mr. Warsh correctly notes that the nation's existing data architecture could be improved. What stands today relies largely on household and business surveys that face declining response rates, and it takes time to collect and process them.

Do you really think that Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson would welcome better data??? In a pig's eye, he would.