05 June 2020

What's Wrong with a Thumb on the Scales?

As the crooks know, the easiest way to win is to cheat. It's obvious that Census took pity on, or fear of, The Very Unstable Lunatic with the just release May employment numbers.

BLS/Census reported 2,500,000 new jobs in May. Contrast that with what ADP reported days earlier, a decrease of 2,760,000. Someone's thumb is on the scales. The difference is 5,260,000, which is not just some sampling error. According to FRED last year,
Thus, the ADP report differed from the BLS number by 158,000. This difference was one of the largest in 14 years, relative to forecast errors in months outside of U.S. recessions.

ADP has no dog in this fight, but The Very Unstable Lunatic certainly does.

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