02 August 2024

Musk Ox - part the fourth

By now you've read about the plunge in Tesla's sales/profit and subsequent Musk backlash (for an increasing host of reasons). What seems to always take something of a backseat is the physics of EVs. All chemical batteries are temperature sensitive. Here's a graph EVs by state. You'll see that with only a couple of Blue State exceptions, EVs are in southern/warm states. You'll not get very far in Minnesota in January, what with having to use the battery to keep your fingers and toes warm, and run headlights (one supposes that all EVs do sport LED lights) a lot. It's also funny that warm, but Red, states like Mississippi don't do EVs. Of course, Mississippi and other warm Red states have piss poor incomes. A 20 year old F-150 is likely the preferred vehicle; Cybertruck, anyone?

Here's a breakdown of battery capacity by ambient temperature.

And, it turns out, above about 85°, EV batteries don't fair well. There's not only the chemistry, but also that most folk run the airconn max, and that does a number on the battery.

So, it seems that the Goldilocks area would be that swath from the mid-Atlantic to Commie California; not too cold and not too warm. IOW, the TAM for EVs is limited by physics. Damn physics.

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