Parallax View - part the ninth

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:

25 to 99 - 810
 5 to 24 - 663
      <5 - 323

As in the past few weeks, the smaller sized counties continue to climb the totem pole; they ain't goin away and they ain't many empty ones to add, so they have to go up. The 1,000+ count is up to 276, from 254 just last week. And, which is more ominous, the 100 to 999 group is up to 907 from 852. The three group total is 1,993, while the grand total goes up just a tad to 2,979, leaving just a smidgen to the county total. Covid will be behind us by Memorial Day. Mikey said so.

Dumb and Dumbers

One of the ways to get rid of The Very Unstable Lunatic is to kill off his base. Nasty, but effective. Who knew that The Very Unstable Lunatic would make the process easier?

By attending the Rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.; BOK Center; ASM Global; or any of their affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, contractors, or volunteers liable for any illness or injury.

One might expect that such will be required for all of his sausage fests. We might also expect that the most ardent zealots, convinced that God will protect them from the Chinese Virus, will attend. One can hope that God with give them all the Cosmic Finger.

Pictures as Data

A recurring theme of these missives is that fancy inferential methods, frequentist or silly Bayesian, are oft times not only not needed, but simply the wrong approach. Oft times, just looking out the window will tell you what the weather is. Lo and behold, pictures tell us much about Covid-19.

Satellite images of hospital parking lots in Wuhan as well as internet search trends, show the coronavirus may have been spreading in China as early as last August, according to a new study from Harvard Medical School.

Both sophisticated and simple at the same time. Similar, in intent, to excess death analysis. And, just by the way, these researchers used public satellite imaging. Imagine, if you will, what the Intelligence Community imaging was revealing in the same time period. In other words, the IC told The Very Unstable Lunatic's minions what was happening months before it's been admitted.

"Both the idea that hospital parking lots or business can be used can be a relative indicator for something happening in a population," Brownstein said. "We actually published on this years ago where we showed that hospitals in Latin America got super busy during flu season. You could predict flu season just by looking at the parking lots."

A nice way of saying that this isn't their first rodeo.

Parallax View - part the eighth

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:

25 to 99 - 820
 5 to 24 - 680
      <5 - 351

Some might look at these numbers and see that they've gone down over the last few weeks. Well, only sort of. The two lower groups have gone down, but there's some problems. As each previous week, 1,000 and up continues to rise, now 254. The county total also rises, to 2,957, ever smaller difference to total counties. What's more important, one might surmise, is that the next two groups (25 to 999) come to 1,672, which puts the total of the top three groups to more than half of counties. Like an old-fashioned coffee pot, Covid percolates right along. Yeah, as Mike said, "by Memorial Day weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us". If you do look at the map, one might reasonably conclude that the South will rise again. One might also discern a pincer movement against the Great Plains, the greater southeast moving west-northwest and the pacific marching east. And don't be fooled by the apparent safety of the east face of the Rockies, it is just empty mountain, after all.

And for our next contestent, we have another seeding, at least as bad as the Florida Covidiots

Oklahoma State linebacker Amen Ogbongbemiga, one of the three players, announced on Twitter he had tested positive after attending a protest in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

After attending a protest in Tulsa AND being well protective of myself, I have tested positive for COVID-19. Please, if you are going to protest, take care of yourself and stay safe.
— Amen Ogbongbemiga (@closedprayer) June 3, 2020

Just one of many such situations. We'll see if the seeds sprout in a couple of weeks.

Not to forget the throngs in cities big and small continuing to protest police misconduct. Lots of masks, but lots of not-masks on the teeVee news. The pundits have predicted new clusters over the next couple of weeks. It would be foolish to disagree.

Are You Smarter Than a Canadian?

Another piece you have to read. Smarts always work out better than dumb. And Canadians are so nice, eh?

While Ontario and Quebec, the two most populous provinces, are still grappling with hundreds of new cases every day, British Columbia has now reopened schools, restaurants and hair salons. This week, the province of five million reported fewer than 80 new cases.

"By all rights, British Columbia should have been clobbered," said Colin Furness, an outspoken infection control epidemiologist in Toronto. The province is on the coast, above Washington State, he noted, with a large population that travels back and forth to China, where the outbreak began.

"They took decisive action, did it early without hesitation and communicated effectively," Mr. Furness added. "People listened to her."

You nip it in the bud, and things turn out a bit better. The Very Unstable Lunatic won't spend a dime unless it's for his direct benefit; passive aggressive is his M.O.

What's Wrong with a Thumb on the Scales?

As the crooks know, the easiest way to win is to cheat. It's obvious that Census took pity on, or fear of, The Very Unstable Lunatic with the just release May employment numbers.

BLS/Census reported 2,500,000 new jobs in May. Contrast that with what ADP reported days earlier, a decrease of 2,760,000. Someone's thumb is on the scales. The difference is 5,260,000, which is not just some sampling error. According to FRED last year,

Thus, the ADP report differed from the BLS number by 158,000. This difference was one of the largest in 14 years, relative to forecast errors in months outside of U.S. recessions.

ADP has no dog in this fight, but The Very Unstable Lunatic certainly does.

Parallax View - part the seventh

Another week's up, so here are today's numbers:

25 to 99 - 787
 5 to 24 - 730
      <5 - 381

1,000 and more continues to creep up, now 233. In particular if you show only 1,000 and 100 to 999, you can see the creep throughout the Red South. Even without the density of NYC or Chicago (LA is sprawl, so is more like the South; wait... it is south), the Red South is turning redder by the day. Soon, they'll get really needy and beg to The Very Unstable Lunatic, 'Save us, Dear Leader!!'. And, of course, The Very Unstable Lunatic and Moscow Mitch will send Billions and Billions of dollars their way.

Further, the mountain West is bigly joining the party, even with Nebraska, et al, refusing to report full information. Kind of like Putin's Russia, you betcha. The only areas reporting no activity are the empty parts of Montana and Utah. I guess that's all there is of God's Protected Country. Or, may be, there's only empty prairie, bare mountains, and some cattle?

Total infected counties is now 2,937, up from last week's 2,918. Still ain't many counties left untouched; we're a few tens away from the total in about 12 weeks. And much of what's recently getting sucked into infection are counties with rural healthcare, a marginal resource in normal times. As Mikey (24 April) said, "If you look at the trends today, I think by Memorial Day Weekend we will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us." Mikey likes it! Innumerate and science denying is not the smartest way to deal with a science problem.