Carnac Predicts - part the fourth

It is very hard to predict, especially the future.
-- Niels Bohr (or may be Yogi Berra or Mark Twain or ...)

Thus encouraged, let's game some scenario about the outcome of Election Day, not so much as to who'll win (Biden in a landslide if the fiddling by the Trumpicans is sequestered), but what might come of the Covid pandemic. The two situations are connected, alas.

Here's what we 'know'.

1 - Democrats have chosen mail-in voting much greater than Trumpicans.

Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on Election Day (50% vs. 20%).

Thus we should expect the pre-election day infections to continue pretty much on the same course in Blue areas following election day, while Red areas should spike even higher. Thanksgiving won't be giving much thanks in Red areas. We 'know' that congregant activities, less so outdoors than in, lead to more infection. In-person voting is a mix. That 50% level seems kind of squishy support for ex-President AuH₂O 2020, don't you think? Shouldn't it be closer to 90%? Shouldn't they be following Batshit J. Moron faithfully? Covid isn't a problem? May be they're not all as dumb as a sack of hair?

2 - The CDC now says that 15 minutes of contact with an infected, and need not be continuous, is sufficient to lead to infection. In-person voting in Red areas is most likely to be among the mask deniers, and thus conducive to spread. Bigly.

3 - There were spikes, albeit small-ish and localized, following primaries earlier in the year.

4 - Since some states ban mail-in vote counting before election day, it's likely that early results from such states will have ex-President AuH₂O 2020 in the lead; unless the Blue Wave is a Total Tsunami, of course. And see 6, below.

5 - Some evidence/reporting that rallies do lead to localized Covid spikes. As you would expect, ceteris paribus.

6 - The determining factor: what effect will the evident nationwide spike over the last weeks have on the Trumpican preference for in-person voting? What we know today is somewhat dated and from polling.

A - They'll do it anyway, thus leading to an initial ex-President AuH₂O 2020 vote lead and subsequent spike in Covid in Red Areas. They'll feel like they won; by dying.
B - They'll see the grim reaper waiting at the polling place door, choose self-preservation, and go home instead. The Blue Wave becomes a Blue Tsunami.

I'm not about to predict whether A or B will dominate, but keep in mind that the average Trumpican is old, white, barely educated, sick, and rural; not the sort of folk who'll do well if struck with Covid. Not that most of them understand that, given their predilection for attending those rallies.

Carnac isn't willing to stick his neck out, too much, with regard to the election outcome, but whatever the outcome, a spike-upon-the-spike is pretty much a slam dunk in Red areas. They don't believe in Covid, it's all a Left Wing Hoax, so let's not send them any resources to support their (soon to be) overrun hospitals. Seems fair to me.