27 June 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the eleventh

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[update 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[update 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
[update 11 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 
Louisiana 228 7
Alabama 188 5
Wyoming 103 12
Idaho 118 6
[update 15 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 
Louisiana 559 8
Alabama 290 5
Wyoming 68 11
Idaho 89 5
[update 18 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    244     4 
Louisiana 326 6
Alabama 334 4
Wyoming 65 9
Idaho 0 4
[update 25 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    243     4 
Louisiana 210 6
Alabama 540 4
Wyoming 104 11
Idaho 83 5
[update 22 June]
Well, our candidates for a Darwin Award continue to appear. No suprise, all from Red Rebel states.
Low vaccination rates are dangerous when combined with the spread of variants like Delta, which is believed to be more transmissible and cause more serious illness. Steve Edwards, CEO of CoxHealth, a healthcare system in Springfield, Missouri, told CNN the combination is to blame for a six-fold increase in hospitalizations in his system.
Early on, it was recognized that Covid spread was just as effective with lots of small groups as it was for a few large groups. That data point continues to appear.
Researchers used private insurance data from 6,535,987 individuals living in 2,926,530 households between January 1 and November 8, 2020. They compared Covid-19 infections between households with and without a birthday in the previous two weeks, adjusting for household size.

They found that households were more likely to have confirmed Covid-19 cases two weeks after a birthday. The risk was even higher when the birthday was for a child, the study reported.
[update 23 June]
May be you recall the plaint by the anti-vaxxers that the various vaccines, the mRNA versions in particular, are killers, among other naughty things. I always have wondered why the anti-vaxxer clan, generally Right Wingnut Trumpsters, would be so Socialist to warn us Gullible Snowflakes that we're putting our lives and our clan in Mortal Danger. I mean, that's just another way to squelch the Snowflake Vote, isn't it? Shouldn't keeping their yaps shut be the smarter course? Of course it is.

As asserted here many times, the Cheats will end up being the Body Bag Clan, you betcha. (Whether this is obvious in A. Corres Pondent's timeframe is a different issue.) Today brings more news in this vein.
"Covid-19 vaccines are available for everyone ages 12 and up," US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a White House briefing Tuesday. "They are nearly 100% effective against severe disease and death -- meaning nearly every death due to Covid-19 is particularly tragic, because nearly every death, especially among adults, due to Covid-19 is at this point entirely preventable."

Those still dying from Covid-19 in the US are "overwhelmingly" unvaccinated, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN's Jake Tapper.
As that old adage goes, "there's no cure for stupid". And they won't vote. Well, one hopes.

Last but one of the weekly updates. More states increasing than decreasing. Who'd a thunk it?

23 June 2021

Kind of a Putz

Regular reader may recall the various times these missives have asserted that one can measure material progress of humanity writ large by cataloging the entries into the periodic table. And, by contradiction, the slow down in invention since the periodic table was completed; at least of the stable natural elements. That observation was, sort of, contradicted by pointing out that organic chemistry is different, in that polymerization supports molecules of, I will suppose, infinite size and number based on carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and the occasional Other. Better living through Plastics, that "one word, Daniel".

Today's NYT offers an obituary of a signal organic chemist, who devised new catalytic processes that have made it possible to attach new Others to the base elements.
Traditionally, organic chemists largely limited themselves to molecules using the 10 or so elements found in organic compounds. Dr. Negishi said that he and others had "realized that we should make sure of the entire periodic table."
From my fingers to God's ear.

As to the title of this missive, it turns out that Negishi was in it for the Nobel. And he carried the medallion in his wallet!
"When he got his Nobel Prize, he became nicer," Dr. Tour said. "He'd take his wallet out of his pocket, and protruding from his wallet was the Nobel Prize medallion."

Dr. Tour said Dr. Negishi would pass the medal around and wouldn't mind if someone dropped it. "You could see the ding in one side of it," Dr. Tour said. "And he just laughed about it."

21 June 2021

Dee Feat Is In Dee Flation - part the forty first

As mentioned by-the-way in these missives, the 'inflation' that followed the vaccination success of Sleepy Joe and the Northerners (a Classic Rock group if ever there were one), didn't last long. Yet more reporting that supply has begun to emerge now that demand is reckoned to be stably returned. Surprise surprise.
It's a dance of supply and demand that has reassured many experts and the Federal Reserve in their belief that painful price spikes for everything from airline tickets to used cars will abate as the economy gets back to normal.

"Many of the extreme price spikes we've seen in recent months are likely to reverse for Econ 101 reasons," said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

Lumber prices in the futures market, for example, are down more than 45 percent from their peak, slipping below $1,000 for the first time in months. That's still high — between 2009 and 2019, prices averaged less than $400 per thousand board feet — but the sell-off has been gaining momentum over the last few weeks. The price has fallen in 11 of the last 12 trading sessions, including a 0.5 percent drop to settle at $900.80 on Friday, according to FactSet data.
Told ya so.

20 June 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the tenth

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[update 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[update 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
[update 11 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 
Louisiana 228 7
Alabama 188 5
Wyoming 103 12
Idaho 118 6
[update 15 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 
Louisiana 559 8
Alabama 290 5
Wyoming 68 11
Idaho 89 5
[update 18 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    244     4 
Louisiana 326 6
Alabama 334 4
Wyoming 65 9
Idaho 0 4
[update 16 June]
Yet another report warning about variants
"The second reason it's concerning is that there is some data to indicate that it may in fact also be more dangerous, may cause more severe illness. That still needs to be understood more clearly, but these are two important concerns and they explain in part ... why this is become the dominant variant in the UK, where over 90% of cases are the Delta variant," Murthy said.
[update 17 June]
Oh shit!! Not only for the drug company, but for the rest of us. CureVac released data from an interim analysis of its mRNA Covid vaccine, and the picture isn't pretty. I've not a whit of interest in CureVac, but this bit did get my attention:
Shares of CureVac CVAC, -3.47% fell 42% in premarket trading on Thurdsay, a day after the German biotech said its COVID-19 vaccine was 47% effective in preventing the disease. CureVac's study, conducted in 10 countries and involving 40,000 people, showed the vaccine's struggle against a "fast changing environment" of at least 29 COVID-19 variants, with the original coronavirus strain "almost completely absent."
my emphasis
As it happens CureVac is also an mRNA vaccine, but is woefully inferior to other types. So, is mRNA in the main, still a magic bullet? Only the shadow knows. Which is to say: if the mRNA in this vaccine didn't instill anti-bodies to Covid, what did it do? Expect the antiVaxxers to predict third arms and second heads to develop in these trial patients. And, of course, this is a recent trial, where original Covid has all but disappeared. If Delta and other nasty strains get into our Bottom Five states, watch out. The pencil neck people will be real life Walking Dead, stalking Liberal Elites in the Northern states.

[update 18 June]
Spent part of the day pondering the status of P.1 from Brazil, but got busy clearing gutters. Should have known. Last time I went looking, it was laying waste. I didn't have to do much searching; here is reporting that just appeared on my CNN front page. As stated here earlier, P.1/Gamma could be the new problem.
Current evidence suggests Gamma can resist the effects of antibody treatments.
In nine states, HHS has halted the distribution of two monoclonal antibody treatments from Eli Lilly and Co, citing reduced effectiveness against both the Gamma and Delta variants.
"Results from in vitro assays that are used to assess the susceptibility of viral variants to particular monoclonal antibodies suggest that bamlanivimab and etesevimab administered together are not active against either the P.1 (Gamma) or B.1.351 (Beta) variants," HHS said on Wednesday.
Mississippi and Alabama continue to progress. We'll see.

17 June 2021

Thought For The Day - 17 June 2021

Every now again, more often than not, you owe it to yourself to put "Human Wheels" on whatever music machine you have and run it at the highest volume your speakers or headphones can handle. You really should.

16 June 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the ninth

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[update 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[update 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
[update 11 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 
Louisiana 228 7
Alabama 188 5
Wyoming 103 12
Idaho 118 6
[update 15 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 
Louisiana 559 8
Alabama 290 5
Wyoming 68 11
Idaho 89 5
[14 June]
Here's Dr. Peter Hotez on the Southern Problem. It's not going away.
If new variants arising from the southern states are allowed to emerge over the summer, these could accelerate across the rest of the country into the fall. For example, the P.1 variant (and possibly the E484K mutation superimposed on B.1.1.7) appears to be slightly less susceptible to the current vaccines compared to, say, the original lineages, or the B.1.1.7 variant on its own. Regarding the Delta variant, two doses of the mRNA vaccine still appear to work well, whereas a single vaccine dose appears to exhibit reduced efficacy.
Sound familiar? The forest fire analogy is apt: suppress it fast when it's small, or there's the Devil to pay later.

All in all, yet another mixed bag. Louisiana and Alabama are deer in the headlights mode. Mississippi is all over the place, the 14th was 266 while the 11th was 0. A. Corres Pondent is sorta, kinda half right as of the 15th. Likely the article would be spiked. Given the concern offered up by the 'experts' with regard to variant propagation among the poorly vaccinated states, and these five were the bottom of the barrel at the outset of this sequence, I'll give the review two more full week iterations and thence re-visit the data if the situation goes into the abyss.

13 June 2021

By The Numbers - part the twelfth

wannaBePresident Huey Long 2024 continues on his Grievance Tour of Red America, continuing to claim that, somehow, the Snowflakes stole the election from him. There remains the critical problem, which the Snowflake News neglects to mention (and they should each and every time they report on the Tour), that it was only ex-President AuH2O 2020 who lost by 7,000,000 votes. If the Snowflakes had figured out how to rig the vote, it would be completely stupid to only steal from Dear Leader Yo! Semite of Thigh Land, when it's even more important, in my humble opinion, for the Snowflakes to gain full control, 60 seats, of the Senate. Not only did the wily Snowflakes not get that, and only got 50 by getting out the voters in the GA Special, they lost seats in the House.

It seems odd that the Snowflakes would use their magnificent machine in such a clumsy way. But, of course, the Crazys don't think. Much.

12 June 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the eighth

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[update 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[update 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
[update 11 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 
Louisiana 228 7
Alabama 188 5
Wyoming 103 12
Idaho 118 6
[10 June] Well, the Lamestream Press is starting, too late in my estimation, to call out the Red States.
A range of theories has emerged about why the South, which as of Wednesday was home to eight of the 10 states with the lowest vaccination rates, lags behind the rest of the country: hesitancy from conservative white people, concerns among some Black residents, longstanding challenges when it comes to health care access and transportation.

The answer, interviews across the region revealed, was all of the above.
[12 June] Since this is reporting day for this series, I'll include this bit of news for today. It should come as no surprise.
Less than half of adults living in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Wyoming have received one dose of Covid-19 vaccine, according to the CDC this week.
Idaho has swapped with Tennessee, which is kind of no surprise. It appears that Blaine county pulled Idaho out of ignominy; and, to no one's surprise, a Blue population. Tennessee has not one county above 50% fully vaccinated.
Blaine County has a higher cost of living than surrounding areas; the median value of its owner-occupied housing units is more than double the state average.
...
Blaine County has gained a reputation as a Democratic Party enclave in strongly Republican Idaho. The Democratic presidential candidate has won the county in every election since 1992.

Mixed bag again. I look askance at the Alabama precipitous drop; color me unconvinced. We'll see. A few more days. Being diehard suspicious of the Red states, perhaps two weekly updates from today in addition to the normative 15 June one. Fingers crossed; may be A. Corres Pondent will have nothing to write. Hope springs eternal.

09 June 2021

Thought For The Day - 9 June 2021

First, it's Lake Mead drying up, now FDA has gone rogue, or thoroughly corrupt, by approving an Alzheimers 'drug' that doesn't work. I wonder how well the Sun Belt is going to work out: no water and millions of geezers hooked up to $56,000/year IVs? Oh, that's right, the Blue State taxpayers will bail these 'growth states' out. "We must build a pipeline from New England lakes and reservoirs to the parched Southwest!! They must have water!!" As usual. FDR should have told the Old South to go to hell. (The following is prominent in my dead-trees copy from today, but not in the on-line version. No explanation.)
This is what really keeps me up at night: A therapy of this cost is going to have enormous implications for everyone. And by everyone, I literally mean you, too. There's going to be some 60- and 70-year olds in your plan. If they start getting this treatment, you will see your premiums will go up.
-- Dr. Joseph Ross, Yale
America will never be a socialist country.
-- wannaBePresident Huey Long 2024/2019

Well, OK. Then only demented geezers (nearly the entirety of the Trump Party rural base) who have a spare $56K/year sitting around can get it. Not to mention that $30K in ancillary costs.

The only meaningful difference between European/Canadian style socialism and the sub-rosa American version is that here in the USofA, corps like Biogen rake in billions from the masses. Yeah, I guess that's proof that a country runs better with a few stupidly rich folks, and the rest scratching for an existence. Ya think? Did I mention that, thanks to some purloined tax returns, we now know that the top 25 richest paid little to nothing in taxes? For what benefit to the society and economy? One might wonder?

05 June 2021

Your Cheatin Heart - part the seventh

June 15, 2021 

New York Times
by A. Corres Pondent
RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel
At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.
So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 
Louisiana 421 10
Alabama 285 6 cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
Wyoming 83 12
Idaho 167 9
We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 
Louisiana 340 9
Alabama 443 6
Wyoming 70 14
Idaho 167 9
[updated 28 May]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 
Louisiana 354 9
Alabama 228 5
Wyoming 96 12
Idaho 135 8
[updated 4 June]
             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 
Louisiana 364 7
Alabama 557 6
Wyoming 80 12
Idaho 166 6
On the whole, life is getting worse in the states of the free. Time continues.

[1 June]
A touch of honesty. Who knew?
Peru has more than doubled its official death toll from the Covid-19 pandemic following a government review of the figures, leaving the country with the highest coronavirus-related death rate per capita in the world.

Peru's prime minister announced Monday that the death toll from March 1, 2020 to May 22, 2021 had been revised up to 180,764. The previous figure was 67,807, which is 2.6 times lower.
[3 June]
Well, we have concrete evidence of those cheatin hearts.
That changed in mid-May after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised vaccinated Americans that they could go maskless in most indoor settings. The next week, the store told employees that they could no longer ask customers to cover their faces. So mask use plummeted, and the anxiety of Ms. Wainwright and other workers shot up.

"We just feel like we're sitting ducks,"said Ms. Wainwright, who estimated that far fewer than half of patrons wore masks on a recent Sunday. "Now it's just a free-for-all."
No surprise that the cheats are in those Red states.

[4 June] Sitting ducks?
"There are 12 states that are already at 70%. I worry about the ones that are way below that, and they are sitting ducks for the next outbreak of Covid-19 -- which shouldn't have to happen now," National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins told CNN's Chris Cuomo.
You betcha.

And for those who feel they don't need the protection of the vaccine, Collins said to think of getting doses as a "donation" to those in communities who -- for reasons like chemotherapy and organ transplants -- aren't necessarily protected against Covid-19 by vaccinations.
But, but, but... for the Social Darwinists in the Freedom Protecting Red states, "donations" to the community is just Communism. And you know these knuckledraggers are all for guns and meth, but hate anything that smacks of Communism.