Don't Look Behind the Curtain

Long time dear reader might recall my jaundiced view of quant market trading. "Data is driven by events, not the other way round." Yet we see many stat folks going whole hog into Wall Street, dragging all manner of ever more abstruse data procs. Turns out, I'm not fully alone. (I had to switch to Chrome from Firefox to open the link; you may also.)

"It's easy to train a system to recognize cats in YouTube videos because there are millions of them," Chan says. In contrast, only a few such large swings in the market have occurred before. "You can count [these huge drops] on one hand. So it's not possible to use machine learning to learn from those signals."

In other words, events drive the data, and if there aren't enough events to drive enough data, you'll never see enough of them to drive a model. You're much better off reading 'The New York Times' and 'The Guardian' and other large dailies. That's where the Covid-19 event was reported early, and if you had a mind to, you could have put a few Bongo Bucks into a handful of micro-cap 'vaccine' developers around March 1 and cashed out in the last week or so with life altering amounts of Bongo Bucks. No AI needed.