30 March 2020

Dearly Departed

Among The Orange Shitgibbon's zealots, the clarion cry is "flu has killed 20,000 this season, so Covid isn't a big deal with 1,500" or whatever the number is at the time. Firstly, of course is that the flu season has been on-going since the first week of October (the data date, not necessarily when cases emerged) so, yeah, there are more deaths. Covid-19 has been reving for about 2 months. Not apples and oranges.

The other cavil from this cabal is that governors and medical folks are lying about the need for beds, ventilators, and supplies since the number of deaths compared to flu... and so forth. One might think that this string "what percent of flu deaths happen in nursing homes" entered into the Yellow Google (or your searcher of choice) would pop up a nice clean number; either total count or percent will do. So far, nada.

But this paper does provide some guidance.
Influenza viruses. Outbreaks of influenza occur with regularity in nursing homes and often affect multiple facilities in the same region. For example, in a 7-county survey conducted prospectively in lower Michigan during the 1989—1990 influenza season, influenza outbreaks were identified in 17 facilities (38% of those studied) [12]. Similarly, during the 1997—1998 influenza season, 43 adult residential facilities in Virginia, including 32 nursing homes, reported outbreaks, which involved a total of 788 residents [9].

The point being that some percent, and it could be rather large since upwards of 70% of flu deaths are among the elderly. The percent from this document is ~84%. So for the geezer cohort (65+) 46,862 deaths of a total 55,672. One might reasonably believe that far more of these deaths occurred in institutionalized folks than the remaining 8,810. The largest count, by far, is 85+, so inferring that a goodly percent of those patients were already in a medical setting is quite reasonable. The point with regard to the Covid hospitalization problem is that most, so far and by far, have been new admissions. That's what's causing the problem. The Orange Shitgibbon is way too stupid and biased to discern the difference.

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