06 January 2020

Cheatahs

Having grown up in western Massachusetts, sports affiliation was split between Boston teams and New York teams. Not least because the Boston crowd treated the population west of 128 as tax revenue, otherwise left to their own devices. And the 'big city', Springfield, was always jealous of the more prosperous Hartford some miles to the south. In the football world, before the Boston Patriots, we had the New York Football Giants. The Patriots were inept for the first couple of decades of their existence, and if Belichick hadn't lucked out finding a 6'5" quarterback available in the 6th round (199 overall), they would still be. Well, since yesterday, they are again. Cheetahs always cheat. They deserve to fail.

Just an aside. During one of the NFL studio shows over the weekend, one of the commentators said that Pete Carroll is the oldest head coach. I was stunned. Compared to Cheatin' Bill, he looks like a spring chicken. Bill looks like what comes out of the back end of a hippo. I guess clean living has its reward; well, if one ignores the unpleasantness at USC, of course.

Now what? Brady's skill level no longer exists, he's said to have declined to give the Patriots a 'home town discount', and who wants a decrepit 43 year old QB? Some of the pundits on-air and in-print have attributed the team's so-so play to a lack of stellar wide outs, but who's fault is that? Who's fault is it that there's no Brady-in-waiting? Jimmy G's still playing, as I recall.

If a team does have a couple of young, stellar wide outs, why would they opt for a decrepit 43 year old QB? What's the point? Yes, some of the pundits cite Peyton Manning/Broncos as precedent, but that's materially different. Manning was coming off injury, wasn't near 43, and didn't actually propel the Broncos over the season; he was that damning-with-faint-praise 'game manager'.

What passes for 'analytics' in sports, isn't stats or data science; it's merely arithmetic, calculating population parameters. All the observations are recorded, and the parameters figured out. There's no inference to be had. If a QB can't make passes over 10 yards for a full season, then that's all you know. May be, if he gets 'faster' (a la Tom Terrific) receivers, he can then make deep balls. May be not; it may be that his arm is just shot.

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