Thought For The Day - 27 February 2022

Putin ravages Ukraine. Or the Mariel Boatlift, Eastern division. There are so many poor Russians in need of a comfortable flat, and look!! All these empty flats!! How do you say Lebensraum in Russian? Perfect solution.

About The Fat Lady - part the second

Recall this from a few days ago?

"If it doubles again to 8%, that means we're into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of COVID-19 coming in the U.S.," says Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation.
[my emphasis]

If that happens, and I'm a believer in numbers, some dumb pols are in for a rude awakening.


Well, another step along the Yellow Brick Road

Cases of BA.2, one of four omicron subvariants, are roughly doubling each week. It was responsible for nearly 4% of new coronavirus cases last week, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's up from 2% of cases the week before and 1% the week before that.
[published 23 Feb.]

If that isn't already exponential, it will do until the Real Thing comes along.

Whither Putin?

Earlier missives mused that Putin's true goal was to re-make the olde USSR.

With the ruble now basically a worthless domestic currency, and Russia not nearly a self-sufficient domestic economy, Vlad could well go to war someplace. Stoke, once again, the vision of Greater Russia (USSR) for Real Russians. Stay tuned.
[2014, if you don't click]

Today brings a contrary view, which is also more expansive.

The Bolsheviks, in Putin's view, created the artificial republic of Ukraine. What he dreams of rebuilding is not the USSR but the pre-1917 Russian Empire.

Well. What is that "pre-1917 Russian Empire" of which he speaks? Here's is one view.

At the height of its expansion, the Russian Empire stretched across the northern portions of Europe and Asia and comprised nearly one-sixth of the earth's landmass; it occupied modern Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Finland, the Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia), Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan), the Baltic Republics (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), and significant parts of Poland and Turkey.

That's a WOW!! As mentioned earlier, most of Russia, per se, is useless tundra. Without the more temperate western lands, 'Russia' isn't much more than dried fish eating Eskimos. The USSR never got that expansive.

About the Fat Lady

It seems that even intelligent pols in Blue states are bending to the nutballs in the asylum, who assert that the opera is over. Fact, the fat lady ain't near on stage to sing. Some specifics.

- deaths continue apace

more people are dying of the coronavirus now than during most points of the pandemic.

If you look up the NYT graph page you can clearly see that deaths remain in the general area of the Covid-δ peak from last October.

- yet another prediction. The CNN Covid page, as I type, lists 942,985 deaths so far. That puts us 57,015 occupied body bags from 1,000,000. There are lots of Named Numbers in science, Avogadro's being the most well known, at least by name. I doubt more than a few carry the number itself in close memory (it's 6.02214076×10²³ mol^-1, and yes, I had to look it up). So, I offer that 1,000,000 Covid deaths be the DeSantis Number, in honor of that cretin. If you cursor vewy, vewy carefully along the deaths graph, you can rest on the 23 February numbers. They are:

7-day 1,908
daily 3,025

What?? You mean deaths are going up?? Well, at least today. Since the 7-day peak (2,642) on 3 February, the number has bounced between 3,000-ish and 1,000-ish. It's reasonable to expect to have the 7-day to start back up in the near future. So, how many days to the DeSantis Number? Let's split the difference on 2,500/day. Simple division says 23 days, so around the last week of March.

- as mentioned before, the jury is still out on the contagion/virulence balance of BA.2/Covid-π. The CDC page shows little about BA.2/Covid-π moving up over Covid-ο. Looking elsewhere (the CDC data lags a bit), and generally doesn't offer predictions.

BA.2 has now been found from coast to coast and accounts for an estimated 3.9% all new infections nationally, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It appears to be doubling fast.

"If it doubles again to 8%, that means we're into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of COVID-19 coming in the U.S.," says Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation.
[my emphasis]

If that happens, and I'm a believer in numbers, some dumb pols are in for a rude awakening.

Ain't no fat lady sung yet.

Thought For The Day - 23 February 2022

Before there was Mitt, now taking credit for his Russian expertise, there was this guy. And, yes, it wasn't too difficult to track down the quote to verify the lower brain stem memory from, around, high school history class.

I'll say this; the Third Army alone with very little help and with damned few casualties, could lick what is left of the Russians in six weeks. You mark my words. Don't ever forget them... Someday we will have to fight them and it will take six years and cost us six million lives.
-- George Patton

As noted before, wannaBePresident Huey Long 2024 and Putin have a deal: the USofA gets dictatorial control of the New World and Russia gets the Old World. Remember: Ukraine has been the bread basket of Europe (not just USSR/Russia) forever. How much of Russia is frozen tundra?

In essence, roughly 68 percent of people in Russia live in the European part of the country, which makes up only 20 percent of the whole territory.

That describes Canada, too.

Canada is the second-biggest country on earth, yet over 80 per cent of the country's land is uninhabited, and most Canadians live clustered in a handful of large cities close to the U.S. border. This reality stems from Canada's unique geography, which is, all things considered, rather unfriendly to humans.

When I was in school, the figure was 80% of Canadians lived within 200 miles of the US border. Let's see what it is now, shall we?

90 per cent of Canadians who live within 160 kilometres of the U.S. border. [that's 100 miles]

Pi in the Sky

A few have mused that Covid-ο-BA.2 will, in due time, become Covid-π (assuming, of course, that WHO doesn't want to embarrass bakers). I surely agree. The documented structural differences make that proper. Whether Covid-π follows the Constant Power^© protocol is yet to be known. The reports so far are divided: some find Covid-π more virulent, others (in line with experience) that it does as successful Covids do, trade virulence for contagion.

However, there's mixed evidence on the severity of BA.2 in the real world. Hospitalizations continue to decline in countries where BA.2 has gained a foothold, like South Africa and the UK. But in Denmark, where BA.2 has become the leading cause of infections, hospitalizations and deaths are rising, according to WHO.

Me? I'm a betting kind of guy, but not DraftKings. Given the established spectrum of coronaviruses from common cold (4 varieties), to SARS and MERS, which is to say from highly contagious and benign to lethal and limited in time and space, and the established Covids from Covid-ο to Covid-ε (much the same) it appears most likely that Covid-π will favor contagion. As mentioned more than once in these missives, the middle of the spectrum is a bit muddy; both contagion and virulence could move in tandem in that sub-space since the Darwinist imperative doesn't have a knife edge.

It Just Won't Die!

So, I continue to get plurbs for 'jobs' in my inbox, most of which are at least a tad SQL/RM related. But this one, expurgated of course, landed today. Which goes to prove: 1) COBOL is not yet dead and 2) COBOL still walks among the PC infrastructure. As to the latter, I suspect that this one is a GL based 'full spectrum solution' for some SMB industry sector. While the advert name-checks SS, I'm willing to bet all it contains is a dump of the MicroFocus files. (My unfortunate experience at CSC was just that, with the additional benefit of being z/DB2.) I got an earlier employer off COBOL and a mini-computer (and so, back when they still existed) hosted application of such type. That was the better part of 30 years ago. Where's that wooden stake?


Greetings,

Job Title: COBOL Developer
Location: REMOTE
Duration: 6-12 month
Contract: C2H

Role: COBOL Developer

Role Description: The COBOL Developer would need to have at least 7 years of experience. COBOL Developer provides leadership and supports programming, testing, and analysis duties and tasks.

He/She performs tasks within planned durations to meet established deadlines. He/She collaborates with teams to ensure effective communications and to support the achievement of objectives.

This position provides support for applications and business functions. He/She contributes to the identification and reporting of defects in work products.

This position assists with documentation (e.g., requirements, test and defect data, variances, problem resolution, etc.). The Applications development performs activities of higher complexity.

Responsibilities:

Contributes to the development of business and functional requirements to ensure stakeholder understanding.
Supports the analysis of processes of low complexity to ensure accurate documentation of requirements and processes and to complete test coverage and requirement testability.
Contributes to test windows scripts, set-up, plans, data, and updates to support the testing phase and to ensure test requirements are met.
Contributes input to initial analysis to develop and implement appropriate actions.
Performs and completes specific programming activities to deliver routine programs for supporting business functions.
Follows and contributes with defining specifications, coding standards, and project guidelines to ensure code integrity.
Provide support and assistance for resolution of break-fix tickets on timely bases.
Interacts with applications team members to acquire systems knowledge.
Contributes to the analysis, understanding, and application of the appropriate level of details to ensure mapped solutions satisfy business problems and opportunities.
Developing and maintaining COBOL applications which interacts with multiple interface technologies.
Developing, designing, coding, and testing new changes to enhance software applications with multiple interface systems.
Responsible for technical analysis and design, code and testing coordination with multiple stakeholders.
Provide support and assistance for Change Control deployments.

Required Experience and Skills:

Self-disciplined, strong problem solving/trouble shooting skills.
Good communication skills (verbal and written).
Good leadership skills; available for weekend on-call support.
Knowledge of advanced debugging tools
Obtaining a vast amount of knowledge regarding business processes in Insurance domain.
Strong technical skills:

Databases: MS SQL Server
Languages: Micro Focus COBOL, Windows Script for BAT files
Platforms/systems: Windows 10, Data setup on Windows environment
Tools: Btrieve Files accessing, SPFPRO, CA Realia, SVN, Configuration files setup

Knowledge in _______ is a plus.

If you are qualified, available, interested, planning to make a change, or know of a friend who might have the required qualifications and interest, please call me ASAP at XXX-YYY-ZZZZ, even if we have spoken recently about a different position. If you do respond via e-mail please include a daytime phone number so I can reach you. In considering candidates, time is of the essence, so please respond ASAP.

Thank you,

Regards,

White Flight

Oh God!!! White folks now are jettisoned from speed skating! Is there any sport left that White people can excel at without being bludgeoned by Black interlopers???? Will we never lose the burden of Black people??? This used to be a great country. MAWA!!

And remember: those who laugh last didn't get it.

Thought For The Day - 10 February 2022

Yes, the Right Wingnuts are screaming bloody murder about the 'inflation' attack. It was always my conclusion that this isn't anything out of historical perspective. Months ago I concluded that what we're experiencing is virtually identical to the post-WWII era. But I never set about doing the obligatory search. Well, if you think what's going on is unique, just try "post-WWII inflation" in your favorite search critter. You'll get back myriad hits. And they all, to some small delta, reach the same conclusion: a drastic halt to production and income, followed by pent up demand once the event has passed. QED.

Puff Daddy

Likely you've seen the headline that the sun's outburst has knocked 40 SpaceX low-Earth orbit satellites into Kingdom Come. The headlines might lead one to infer that the radiation flare directly disabled the units. Even the NYT headline implies that. Well, that would be wrong. The problem was much more mundane.

Here's the facts. It was a sort of Tinker to Evers to Chance event. Musk evidently thinks he's the Master of Universe, yet again; the sun's actions be damned. The event occurred on 29 January and the 'stuff' reached Earth on 2 February. The launch was scheduled for 3 February and went ahead anyway. One might think that all involved at SpaceX would, collectively, know something about coronal mass ejections and their effect on The Little Blue Marble. Apparently not.

"I'm just kind of dumbfounded," said Samantha Lawler, an astronomer at the University of Regina in Canada. "Really? They did not think of this?"

"It's a bit of a surprise," said Dr. McDowell. "They should have been ready for this, one would have thought."

So, anyway. Go read up the report, and learn the secret of CMEs.

Cold Covid - part the twentieth, version 5

Well, we get a testable prediction from the CDC

An ensemble forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Wednesday predicts that over 62,000 more people could die from Covid-19 over the next four weeks.

Let's keep track from week to week. Here's the count as of 12 January

842,754

Here's the count as of today, 19 January

857,672

Here's the count as of today, 26 January

874,002

Here's the count as of today, 2 February (Groundhog Day, of course)

891,485

Here's the count as of today, 9 February

911,740

So, an increase of 68,986 deaths since 12 January. Jackpot!! And, keep in mind that we've not yet worked through the record (nearly 4 times) hospitalizations. More yet to come.

I Have a Code in My Node - part the second

Many years ago, I got into an argument on some of the compute forums over the notion that node shrink is a Never Ending Story. I called that somewhere between a mistake and a lie. Some time later, this became a missive in these here parts (2014). At that time, features had a few dozen atoms each. The writing was on the wall, so far as I could see.

Well, unbeknownst to me, those in the business of making chips have been looking into the fact that chips have been Heisenberg devices for many years. Not badly enough to shutdown node shrinking, but getting closer. Today's NYT has a lengthy report on the history and currency of this concern. Turns out, I was right. I await the call from Oslo.

About a year after the first installment in this series, the report tells us

Companies that run large data centers began reporting systematic problems more than a decade ago. In 2015, in the engineering publication IEEE Spectrum, a group of computer scientists who study hardware reliability at the University of Toronto reported that each year as many as 4 percent of Google's millions of computers had encountered errors that couldn't be detected and that caused them to shut down unexpectedly.

Heisenberg arrives:

A team of researchers attempted to track down the problem, and last year they published their findings. They concluded that the company's [Google] vast data centers, composed of computer systems based upon millions of processor "cores," were experiencing new errors that were probably a combination of a couple of factors: smaller transistors that were nearing physical limits and inadequate testing.

Is there a way around this? Some think the problem can be solved with software. Coders always think that, of course:

One such operation is TidalScale, a company in Los Gatos, Calif., that makes specialized software for companies trying to minimize hardware outages. Its chief executive, Gary Smerdon, suggested that TidalScale and others faced an imposing challenge.

"It will be a little bit like changing an engine while an airplane is still flying," he said.

For myself, Smerdon is a cockeyed optimist. Consider the problem at a purely logical level. Your node has gone Heisenberg, which means that random cells produce random results at random intervals. Now, the software Monitor answer, at the 30,000 foot level, is either firmware (on the metal) or loaded code somewhere below the OS. What happens, of course, when the code space of the Monitor falls victim to Heisenberg? The Monitor fails, invisibly just as before. So that means you need a Watcher to watch the Monitor, which puts you in the fun house mirror room of infinity. And the situation also impacts performance of the chip, since most (all?) of the features have to me monitored in real-time. How much of the chip's workload will be dedicated to monitoring itself? Don't worry about the GUI bits, and only care about the ALU? I don't pretend to know, and I expect the likes of TidalScale don't know either.

It will be interesting to see how mankind adjusts to a world where "More" is removed from the vocabulary.

Thought For The Day - 3 February 2022

What with the information from the 1/6 committee, both released and leaked, making it ever clearer that wannaBePresident Huey Long 2024 was directing the insurrection. Which raises the question: will the DoJ have the gonads to charge any of the cabal with treason? The growing disclaimer is that 'it didn't work'. Consider that treason, to be charged by the government, can't have worked, since otherwise there wouldn't be a standing government to make the charge.

Guilty! Guilty! Guilty!

Cold Covid - part the twentieth, version 4

Well, we get a testable prediction from the CDC

An ensemble forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Wednesday predicts that over 62,000 more people could die from Covid-19 over the next four weeks.

Let's keep track from week to week. Here's the count as of 12 January

842,754

Here's the count as of today, 19 January

857,672

Here's the count as of today, 26 January

874,002

Here's the count as of today, 2 February (Groundhog Day, of course)

891,485

So, an increase of 48,813 deaths since 12 January. Three weeks come and gone, and we 'need' 13,269 deaths in the next seven days to meet the prediction. For context, 17,483 is this week's delta. As it has been over the pandemic, deaths are a lagging variable and display rising deltas up to the top of the roller coaster. Looks like we have a winner; we'll top 900,000 body bags next week!