30 September 2021

Delta Dawn - part the third

It's somewhat widely (if that's not an oxymoron) believed by now that Covid expresses a two/three/four (depending on how you measure) month pathology. It certainly appeared that way back in late January when exponential growth dropped like a rock. Which led/leads the Right Wingnuts of the USofA to push for 'do nothing-ism'. That pattern has, more less, appeared with Covid-Δ in the states. But there remain exceptions: Alaska continues to go nuts, as does West Virginia. Hawaii has now topped over. Idaho appears to be at a plateau, just off its peak which is just off the winter 20-21 peak.

And, of course, Vietnam, which is getting hammered, appears to be on the dropping side of the graph. On the other hand, it's likely to be a much longer pathology (the country is already 4 months in), if the back end of the curve mirrors the front end or worse. And there's no guarantee for that. Much of the infection has been in Ho Chi Minh City, so if Vietnam behaves as the USofA did, Covid-Δ will spread outward from the cities. We'll see.

What appears that we've learned:
1 - the winter of 20-21 peak was more drawn out lower than Covid-Δ
2 - the Covid-Δ peak is much higher and shorter, for most states
3 - mitigation works; Red states fare(d) worse in both bouts

Lambda and Mu and Gamma haven't yet taken the USofA by blitzkrieg. It ain't over til the Fat Lady sings.

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