Your Cheatin Heart - part the twelfth

June 15, 2021 


                           New York Times 

                        by A. Corres Pondent 


     RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID 

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel

At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.

So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 

Louisiana      421    10 
 
Alabama        285     6  cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
 
Wyoming         83    12 
 
Idaho          167     9 

We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 

Louisiana      340     9 
 
Alabama        443     6 
 
Wyoming         70    14 
 
Idaho          167     9 

[update 28 May]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 

Louisiana      354     9 
 
Alabama        228     5 
 
Wyoming         96    12 
 
Idaho          135     8 

[update 4 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 

Louisiana      364     7 
 
Alabama        557     6 
 
Wyoming         80    12 
 
Idaho          166     6 

[update 11 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 

Louisiana      228     7 
 
Alabama        188     5 
 
Wyoming        103    12 
 
Idaho          118     6 

[update 15 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 

Louisiana      559     8 
 
Alabama        290     5 
 
Wyoming         68    11 
 
Idaho           89     5 

[update 18 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    244     4 

Louisiana      326     6 
 
Alabama        334     4 
 
Wyoming         65     9 
 
Idaho            0     4 

[update 25 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    243     4 

Louisiana      210     6 
 
Alabama        540     4 
 
Wyoming        104    11 
 
Idaho           83     5 

[update 2 July; swap in Arkansas]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    242     6 

Louisiana      525     9 
 
Alabama        315     4 
 
Wyoming         92    12 
 
Arkansas       494    16 

This is the last scheduled update, as promised. Further Cheatin Hearts will be presented if extraordinary data, better or worse, should emerge. As of today, it sure looks like the Two Americas meme has yet another vector; get the shot(s) and survive or not and die.

[update 28 June]
Well, we have more data on the Bottom Five. One replacement, but I'll take solace in the fact that four of the five remain in the Bottom. Consistency is the mark of a small mind.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 46.1% of the total US population has been vaccinated against Covid-19. Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Wyoming are among the states with the lowest vaccination rates, with less than 35% of their population fully vaccinated.

Idaho was the fifth at the beginning, thence Tennessee, and now Arkansas. That they're all now Southern Rebel Red States, is another hallmark of consistency. Good on ya.

Despite an increasing number of hospitalizations, [Arkansas governor Asa] Hutchinson said he does not think strict limitations are needed again to prevent the spread of the virus because people are more informed of how they should act. However, he did not rule out imposing any restrictions.

Let the Social Darwinist approach go full boar.

Substituting Arkansas for Idaho over the period of these missives, we see the following.

[14 May data start]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 

Louisiana      421    10 
 
Alabama        285     6 
 
Wyoming         83    12 
 
Arkansas       250     8 

[update 24 June, Arkansas only]

             cases    per 100K
Arkansas       383     8 

[update 2 July]
Well, it looks like The South Has Risen Again.

In Arkansas, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the nation, cases are surging, officials said. In Los Angeles County, where the vaccination rate is slightly above the national average, officials warned about a possible new wave of infections, especially given the rapid spread of the Delta variant.

"We are now going in the wrong direction yet again with Covid-19 infections here in the state of Arkansas," said Dr. Cam Patterson, chancellor at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, during the state's weekly briefing Tuesday.
[my emphasis]

And, as one would expect

"Looking state by state and county by county, it is clear that communities where people remain unvaccinated are communities that remain vulnerable," Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Thursday. "This is all true as we monitor the continued spread of the hyper-transmissible Delta variant."

To plagiarize the Granite State motto, "Live Free or Die", well OK

The state saw 988 Covid-19 deaths since late January, and 99.6% of those deaths were people who were not vaccinated, Hutchinson added. In the same time period, more than 98% of those hospitalized with Covid-19 were not vaccinated.

It appears that A. Corres Pondent was just two weeks too soon. Well within the bounds of stat sig, in my opinion. There's no cure for stupid, or fealty to Batshit J. Moron.

[update 3 July]
Over the last few weeks there have been a flood of reports about how Australia has devolved from a paragon of Covid success to a shithole country ravaged by Covid thanks to Delta; of course, 'ravaged' is relative. This is today's version.

Three days after the emergence of a rare Covid-19 case in Sydney, around 40 friends gathered for a birthday party. Along with cake and laughter, there was a hidden threat: One of the guests had unknowingly crossed paths with that single Covid case, an airport driver who had caught the Delta variant from an American aircrew.

Two weeks later, 27 people from the party have tested positive, including a 2-year-old child, along with 14 close contacts. And the seven people at the gathering who were not infected? They were all vaccinated.

Latest estimate is that ~25% of Covid in the USofA is Delta. Australia has learned, yet again, that geometric progression only looks slow at the beginning. That's why and how they managed to keep Covid in check before the vaccines were available: at the first sign of infections, clamp down. And it worked. And they tried it again when Delta appeared, but now

New South Wales avoided a full lockdown during previous Covid outbreaks, including a cluster last December that was curbed with three weeks of suburb-specific restrictions. This time, Gladys Berejiklian, the state premier, tried a similar tactic, but found that Delta moved too quickly to be contained.
[my emphasis]

All you Red State Rebels be warned, yet again, your insistence on 'personal freedom' is going to kill your tribe.