Mightier Than the Data

"The word is mightier than the sword."
-- Ahiqar/700 BC

And, naturally, the word can be mightier than the data.

In today's words of Robert Shiller

If enough people begin to act fearfully, their anxiety can become self-fulfilling, and a recession, sometimes a big one, may follow.

Once again, what, pray tell, does the quant brigade have to offer? In fact, recessions are identified by the quants well after they begin.

There is no fixed timing rule. The committee waits long enough so that the existence of a peak or trough is not in doubt, and until it can assign an accurate peak or trough date.