The Downer Party

All too frequently, there is reporting of a cabal of Debbie Downer Democrats going into 2020 based on the loss to The Manchurian President in 2016. This cabal keeps making noise that Democrats (aka, Hillary) blew it by not pandering to enough Rural Red Reactionaries. Baloney. She lost by 78,900 votes across three states with substantial urban weight.
- Pennsylvania - 78.7%
- Michigan - 74.6%
- Wisconsin - 70.2%

The Manchurian President pandered to, and got out the vote by, the 6,000 year old Earth lunatics. On the other hand, the Democrats simply didn't get out the vote for Hillary. Perhaps she wasn't the most charismatic campaigner (OK, she was lousy), but if the Democrats can't find another 78,900 urban votes...

Of more concern, and I've not yet seen anyone other than my humble self raise the red flag, is Johnson/Stein. The net difference Johnson was approx. the popular vote margin for Hillary. Of more significance is that Stein votes wouldn't swing any state from The Manchurian President to Hillary even if she got all of them, while Johnson out-polled Stein in every state where both were on the ballot. In sum, without either/both The Manchurian President would likely have won the popular vote, since Johnson's a close surrogate of The Manchurian President, while Stein votes were also, on balance, anti-Hillary votes. Numbers matter.

As to losing Red states, all but Maine, Mississippi, Vermont, and West Virginia are majority urban. Betcha didn't know that, right? There aren't as many Red states as you thought. Getting The Manchurian President was mostly the fault of the Democratic leadership, not The Manchurian President's 'superior campaign'. Not even close. The 'shellacing' in 2010 was for the same reason. Some folks just never learn. Get out your base; it's bigger by far, and even in states commonly labeled Red.

Now, on to a related topic. For some time, at least since the 2016 vote count, I've been telling anyone who will listen (and many more who won't) that the White House can't be the primary goal in 2020. That goal is the Senate. At long last someone of the pundits finally says so. Took long enough.