Oops - part the first

Well... y'all should still know that I've grown even more skeptical of AI as the months have passed. Hundreds of billions of dollars on a tech whose TAM is based solely on axing all labour from the economy (in particular those well educated office/lab workers in Blue States whose 10% of the income distribution make 50% of consumption). So, how much axing will it take to reach the tipping point of global collapse of aggregate demand? And, naturally, that will spark The Permanent Great Depression. No one who works can work to get moolah to spend on stuff, and the companies that make stuff have no buyers. And all those Smartest Guys in the Room who bought up every last CPU and GPU to make AI will never see a dime of profit from this "investment". Neato. Some things don't require really elaborate war games to predict.

Day by day, the dam holding back collapse of AI, and before it's even finished being built and running as intended, takes another step to oblivion. Wel... here's today's bit of news.

Situational Awareness, a fast-growing hedge fund in San Francisco founded by 20-somethings that invested heavily in A.I., put out an emergency call for help to rivals in the past 36 hours, seeking to sell more than $10 billion of its stocks to shore up its plummeting portfolio, according to three people briefed on the call.

What was that story about a kid name Icarus? Or that olde (German?) adage: "we are too soon old and too late smart."

Eating

Years ago some pundit (Marc Andreesen), remarked that software will eat the world. Boy, has he ever been shown to be an idiot. AI is 99.44% hardware, and the rest is 100+ year old stats. Now we get the dire skinny from Jeff Sommer:

These big companies are able to categorize the money as an investment — a capital expenditure — and not as an expense. So under current accounting rules, the bulk of the spending has not yet counted against their gaudy earnings. That is helping to propel the stock market to new heights under rosy assumptions that A.I. will transform the world, and that the companies behind it will be making money.

Just like man's laws, accounting rules are also manmade. Unlike, for example, the laws of thermodynamics. Even the laws of economics are manmade, not natural. So, what does it all mean, Mr. Natural?

One day earlier, IBM's shares lost 25.2 percent. That was its steepest daily decline since the 1960s, and it was set off by an earnings shortfall that its chief executive attributed, in part, to the spending underway on A.I. data centers. "We did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization," Arvind Krishna, the company's chief executive, wrote in a letter to investors. Other companies spent so much money to build A.I. foundations, he said, that there wasn't as much left as expected for software service companies like IBM.
[my emphasis]

It's stll not clear to me, anyway, how AI's TAM can amount to anything more than labour replacement. If that really does decimate employment, who'll have moolah to buy all those Bongo Bits? Or, will 'modern economies' devolve into a 'modern dark ages' with only the oligarches having need of the only 'product' made by this modern economy: fancy financial services? With the amount of billions of Bongo Bucks going into each entity's 'data centres', is there enough labour in the world to satisfy the bond holders? Much less show a tidy profit?

There are already rumblings in the high yield market surrounding concerns that the explosion in issuance has bubble-like characteristics similar to that of telecoms in the early 2000s or energy in 2015 to 2017, when investor enthusiasm outweighed a sober assessment of risk. These same critics also worry about the potential for overbuild or overcapacity, i.e. the massive demand fails to materialise, or that despite the strong tenant base, these contracts have yet to be tested.

When it's the Damn Gummint, the 'bond vigilantes' come to the rescue, or corpse feeding. We'll see how they do with such, mostly, private paper.

Thought For The Day - 16 July 2026 (kinda, sorta the Ides of July; how appropriate)

And, fur shur, Day; before Ayatollah 49% Don^© spews more Big Lies tonight. As stated in these missives more than once: NSA has the receipts; they have known since '15 and '16 and '20 and '24 who from Russher, Russher, Russher and who from Ayatollah 49% Don^©'s camp were talking up the fix. I'll bet that Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson himself was talking. After all, he's the best shill for his bidnezz. And he knows it.

Will it be treasonous enough to inspire another Snowden? Only The Shadow knows.

Rite of Passage

The MAGAnauts, and many of the others, keep mewling that the Strait of Hormuz is some kind of international waterway, and thus can't be deemed within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. To be clear: even the olde time 12 mile limit means that Oman and Iran have an overlapping claim to the waters of the Strait. That is not in dispute, no matter what Bone Spur Samurai^© and his minions say.

But... there is an international treaty, known by its acronym UNCLOS

This is because Iran is not a party to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

And, as you'd likely guess, neither is the USofA

The USA has long been one of the most ardent champions of the freedom of navigation, despite not being a party to UNCLOS.

Neither country ever ratified the treaty.

A history of UNCLOS and the USofA from that left-wing commie wiki. We can take anything we want.

What Eccles Means - part the first

As mass production has to be accompanied by mass consumption; mass consumption, in turn, implies a distribution of wealth -- not of existing wealth, but of wealth as it is currently produced -- to provide men with buying power equal to the amount of goods and services offered by the nation's economic machinery.
-- Marriner Eccles/1951

Well... let's update, just a tad. It was recently reported that the top 10% of consumers comprise nearly 50% of consumption. That's a lot. It also, one might suppose, means that the things consumed by that 10% are markedly different from the other 90%. IOW, the 10% spend on luxury, discretionary stuff, while the 90% seek not much more than subsistence. Yes, that's what was reported. Surprise, surprise.

This goes a long way to explain Trumpism: he has been a very good liar, and his marks have been very, very stupid. OTOH, he has given them what they really want: the restoration of The Way Things Were - White folk always having some dark folk below them.

But, here's how labor has been treated for decades

What this means for Eccles? The macro arithmetic no longer works. With AI threatening to move labor's share way, way lower economic policy has to choose: aid the Rich to be Richer, or aid the Poor to be part of the whole economy? Only the shadow knows.

Taken to its logical conclusion, this is a vision of work in which even high-level employees systematically automate nearly every task they perform, until all that is left for them to do is train A.I.

Regular reader likely remembers, long, long ago in a place far, far away, that the only way to de-hallucinate AI is to build it on a database, preferably of the RDBMS variety, to store the ground facts of some area of interest, to act as a safeguard against stupid AI. Well...

Handshake then sends its clients a database with hundreds or thousands of values, containing the original prompt, the top answer and various metadata.

Boy howdy. Now, the report doesn't specify what that "database" is, but it need not be my favorite DB2/LUW. MySQL or even SQLite might do. After all, in use it will likely be read-only. At most WORM.

Who, and how many of Who, will have moolah to drive GDP if these Bros get their way? Will it just be Dark Ages V2.0 with the Really Rich living in castles and the rest living subsistence no matter their inherent talent?

Catch 22

Now here's a good one. The Melbourne Symphony cancelled a concert by a pianist who voiced objection to Israel's killing of journalists in Gaza.

He sued, and, so far, lost. The report doesn't say whether the judgment can be appealed or whether the pianist will do so. But in the course of the reporting we get hypocrisy.

The pianist, Jayson Gillham, claimed in a lawsuit that the orchestra had violated the country's Fair Work Act and his right not to be treated unfavorably in the workplace because of his political beliefs.

That's, sorta kinda, a First Amendment argument. OK.

But the judge, Graeme Hill of the Federal Court of Australia, ruled on Friday that because Mr. Gillham was an independent contractor he was not protected under the workplace rights law. The orchestra, Justice Hill determined, had acted to protect its business and reputation when it canceled the performance by Mr. Gillham and issued statements to its patrons about the matter.

OK. An independent contractor isn't an employee, right?

A spokeswoman for the orchestra said in a statement that it welcomed the judgment and that Mr. Gillham "should have sought the authorization of the M.S.O. before making the statements he made" from the stage.

So, why would a contractor be required to get authorization to make independent statements? He's not an employee of the M.S.O., right?

I guess being for killing journalists (anywhere, for the sake of argument) is in the M.S.O.'s best interest for its "business and reputation". At least, that's how I would parse the sentence. At least one head rolled

After the cancellation, the orchestra's musicians passed a vote of no confidence in the administration, and the organization announced that its managing director was departing.

Voters - part the first

Another series on its way.

If you really, really believe that all those Hill Folk dropped down the chute in all those Red Backwoods with no paperwork to prove it happened will be prohibited from voting, your an Idiot. Our Malignant Narcissist^{©John Gardner} is being supported by the The Gang of Six^© to take over our beloved country just like Erdogan and Orban (RIP politically, for now).

Make America White Again^©. Preferably the dunderhead species.

By The Numbers - part the one hundred and second

One might wonder what, if any, classes these millionaire "student athletes" attend? As the saying goes, "two wrongs don't make a right". State schools, esp. Red state universities, suck up millions of sports bongo bucks in order to beat The Other State teams.

Now a a story from the left wing Commie NYT with some numbers revealing the corruption in college sports, these days.

July 1, 2026, marked the five-year anniversary of name, image and likeness in college sports.
Oh, how quaint July 1, 2021, seems now.
Five years later, there are college quarterbacks making more than $5 million.

Some numbers

- total spending across the industry will reach $4.5 billion this year
- The average Power 4 school's athletes are making a combined $34.8 million.
- Iamaleava's $2 million annual figure remained a unicorn for at least a couple of years.
- (Today, at least a half-dozen QBs make nearly three times that.)

A Tune For Our Time

In honor of our President, Bone Spur Samurai^© at this time of 250 years of White As The New Fallen Snow America

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a
One slave yoked to sleigh

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a 
One slave yoked to sleigh

Dashing through the Lefts in a
One slave yoked to sleigh
With the scams we go
Laughing all the way

Bells on Libtards ring
Making Trumpists Right
What fun it is to ride and sing
A slaying song tonight

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a
One slave yoked to sleigh

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a 
One slave yoked to sleigh

Dashing through the Lefts in a
One slave yoked to sleigh
With the scams we go
Laughing all the way

Bells on Libtards ring
Making Trumpists Right
What fun it is to ride and sing
A slaying song tonight

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls 
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a
One slave yoked to sleigh

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a 
One slave yoked to sleigh

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a
One slave yoked to sleigh

Jingo Balls, Jingo Balls
Jingo all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a 
One slave yoked to sleigh

Thought For The Day - 3 July 2026

Well, now we know. Pulte really, really was installed to open the Gates of Hell for Vlad and Xi. As an earlier sub-title stated: "Vlad I'll take the Western Hemisphere, and you get Europe. Deal?" Democracy is dead.

Thought For The Day - 29 June 2026

Well... the 19^th century is well underway. Now Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson can turn the entire Damn Gummint into his personal hobby horse. Assuming, of course, that neither he nor any successor doesn't end up a Garfield (not the cat). The one, most important, thing Big Bidnezz wants is stability. That is to say: long term stability. Big Bidnezz, with or without Baksheesh, can work its magic so long as it knows the rules don't change every two or four years. Of course, if Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson manages to pull off his planned soft coup, and fills his bank account even further, they'll just add in the Baksheesh to prices. Just like all those tariffs the Furriner Gummints and Bidnezz pay. According to Batshit J. Fucking Moron^©Tillerson.

Welfare for the rich. Come on Down!!

The Gang of Six^© has put the nail in Article I. It no longer exists, to all intensive porpoises.

By The Numbers - part the one hundreth and one

Stupid is as Stupid does. So, an idiot Mainer thinks an AI data center will make as many jobs as the old paper mill that shut down years ago. Ain't gonna be. Data centers, esp. AI version, are almost all hardware. That runs itself.

"The parking lot we're standing in was full. There were probably about 800 employees. Good money and good salaries."

Right. Data centers, on average, barely break 100. And those folks are mechanical drones in flesh colored skin with actual technical training. Not uneducated paper mill drones. Some voice of reason speaks

Utility bills spike, water systems are strained, taxpayers subsidize these projects, communities deal with constant noise, light pollution and environmental degradation.
-- Democratic State Representative Melanie Sachs

Same grift as sports arenas: the billionaires get richer, and the poor get stiffed. And, surprise, surprise: I guess the grift just wasn't big enough for the billionaires

The company that would have provided the computer servers pulled out of the project. Tony's deal fell apart. Now, he says he's working on finding a new partner. But for the time being, the parking lot at the paper mill is still empty, and the town of Jay is still waiting for a lifeline.

Just in case you don't know (and, of course, I suspected but didn't know until I looked it up) the mill town is Jay, in Franklin county, and said county is near the bottom of Maine's counties by college education. So, who would run this data center, if it were built? Aliens from Big Blue cities in Blue states, likely not the unemployed mill workers.. Always works out that way. It ain't easy turning a sow's ear into a silk purse.

Ya gotta run the numbers before you sign on the dotted line. Morons always think the city slickers can be taken for a ride. The problem with moving from yesterday's tech and yesterday's workforce is: it doesn't compute. Never has. Never will. The reason the Great Migration worked was simply that the workforce in Northern factories wasn't brain-taxed to work the assembly lines. How many Damn Gummint programs helped buggy whip factories become car factories? Let me know when you find even one.

Dear Marco, Some History

Now that Bone Spur Samurai^© has caved to Iran, with this announcement about missiles

I'm saying that if other countries have them, it's a little bit unfair for them not to have some. If Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and they all have some, I would say in relative proportion, I think it's okay.

OK, so Emporer Nero The Donald^© (better than Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, and Napoleon Bonaparte) has a heart of fairness wrt to Iran, all of a sudden.

I wonder: has Little Marco been listening? Let's turn the clock, back to the future, wrt to Cuber. It finally came to the public that the Rusher/Cuber effort was not a first attack. It was, in fact, a defensive measure. It finally was revealed that the United States of Alabama had put similar missiles in Turkey long before Rusher/Cuber made the effort to balance the scales. Of course, even JFK went ballistic. So to speak.

In 1959, the US government deployed Thor nuclear missiles in England, an initiative known as Project Emily. In 1961 the US put Jupiter nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey. All were within range of Moscow.

JFK and Nikita secretly drew back from the brink. The deal was revealed in 1969.

So, Little Marco, detente with Cuber is the better path.

Thought For The Day - 18 June 2026

Now that Bone Spur Samurai^© and his lackeys Witkoff and Kushner, experienced foreign ministers of the first water all, have been rolled by their Iran counterparts, we must ask: what did the United States of Alabama get for all that time and treasure (and some body bags)? Well... I expect we'll soon see Trump Tower Tehran. After all, that's all the Three Stooges care about.

Yeah That's Right

Likely been mentioned here before, but, what the hell, why not yet again? My Pappy explained it all decades ago. Of course, didn't actually explain anything, simply reported what he saw.

He finally get drafted, then being WWII and all, and even in those dire times, the US military took the effort to sort the knuckleheads from the brainiacs. Pappy was closer to the latter than the former. The result was that rather than carry a rifle and get shot at by Germans or Japanese, the Signal Corp had first pick, so he built radio towers. Say, what? Turns out that back then, and it turns out more necessarily, airplanes needed signaling towers in order to know where they are and where they are going. These were and are called beacons. Not so important now, what with GPS and satellites generally.

Most of his time was spent in North Africa, mostly around Algeria. And, being the local winners, he and his crew were billeted in mansion-like housing. And, for good measure, they had a houseboy to do the scutwork. Said houseboy was a juvenile, may be 10 years old. Pappy was impressed; the kid spoke a handful of languages fluently. And not all White Man's language, either. Pappy was amazed.

Over the years I've returned to that story from time to time in idle conversation. My sister was born when I was 13, so I saw her early development with near-adult eyes and ears. And, I've also known myriad people who grew up with more than one language. So, how is such fluency possible? It sure as shit ain't like falling off a log for many, if not most, adults.

My interpretation is dumbshit simple: when a walking meatloaf begins to contemplate hearing and speech and meaning, said meatloaf has no notion of languages, plural. To the walking meatloaf it's all sounds. Just sounds. Language is not yet a concept. Just sounds. And, over time, each sound gets associated with some thing. And just things, not yet abstract ideas, like special relativity.

As the walking meatloaf is exposed to sounds and things, he is also exposed to the people making these sounds with these things, and, if the walking meatloaf isn't as dumb as a sack of hair, he'll notice that Joe has one sound for truck while Jacque has a different sound for that truck. So, the walking meatloaf doesn't care about the sounds, except that which one to use is determined by the object and the person/people making the sound.

So, in simplistic terms, walking meatloaf doesn't learn multiple languages (the walking meatloaf is ignorant of languages), but just one. Only later will he be told that one is english and another french, and still another arabic. And that's the kicker: language family doesn't matter either. It's all just sounds.

And that's about what the high priced researchers more or less found

On the whole, Dr. Blanco-Elorrieta said in a news release, a single "grammatical engine" in the brain appeared capable of powering multiple languages at once.

Well, no shit Sherlock. Engine runs just on petrol, not petrol, diesel, and natural gas at the same time. It's not obvious from the report who the subjects of the study were. It matters whether they were adults learning some second language, or like Pappy's houseboy, absorbing multiple languages (really just Language) from the gitgo.

Here's the core error

Early research viewed bilingualism as an "add on" or "disruption" to the processing of one's native language, said Judith Kroll, a psycholinguist at the University of California, Irvine who was not involved in the new study.

For the walking meatloaf, it's all one native language. A mix of different sounds, depending on the context. Context another concept that walking meatloaf is clueless.

Thought For The Day - 14 June 2026

I wonder... how is a 60-day cease fire the same as "unconditional surrender"? Emporer Nero The Donald^© (better than Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, and Napoleon Bonaparte) lying yet again. I wonder... will the MAGAnaut idiots see the difference? Will they credit Bone Spur Samurai^© with ending the war just by making (so he says now) Hormuz open again? Status quo ante isn't much to write home about. Well... unless you're a malignant lying narcissist.

Of course, he had to have something to sell. After all he's 80 today, and likely won't remember anything tomorrow.

I Told You So - 11 June 2026

Well... almost. I hope nothing more. Back on 3 June, I opined that Pulte was installed to erase the NSA tapes from 2016/Trump/Russia. Now comes this from the NYT

The president has also long been deeply skeptical of the intelligence community, primarily because of the investigation into whether his 2016 campaign conspired with Russians who, officials have repeatedly said, interfered in the presidential election that year to harm Mr. Trump's Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton.

A real DNI, not even Gabbard, would do such bidding. Pulte? He doesn't even need to be asked. Emporer Nero The Donald^© (better than Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, and Napoleon Bonaparte) has been very busy erasing anyone and anything which challanges his psychotic view of the world and its history.

[Well... that didn't age all that well!]
I saw the Clayton announcement and thought, "from worst to worst". Just as unqualified. Just now found this

Donald Trump has agreed to drop Bill Pulte - but his new choice is just as bad.

Great minds run in the same gutter.

Dee Feat is in Dee Flation - part the fifty first

Just a reminder from Santayana:

Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.

So, I've plucked some part of Part 44 (aka, the Covid inflation problem) to refresh your memories; and don't have to re-write the wheel. Emporer Nero The Donald^© (better than Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, and Napoleon Bonaparte) is dead set (and deadheaded, though not that old rock band version) on repeating the LBJ fiasco of guns and butter. And he'll blame the Chinese or the Democrats or Cuber (more on that is coming). Here we go again.

The Moneterists mantra is that inflation is solely the result of too much moolah in the economy, and therefore the only cure is to 'take away the punch bowl'. As it happens, sometimes it is true that excess moolah has invaded the economy, and resulted in inflation. In my short lifetime, the most infamous devolved from LBJ's "guns and butter" speech and subsequent actions. Excess real demand exceeded available widgets.

Q. Mr. President, from what you have outlined as your program for now, it would seem that you feel that we can have guns and butter for the foreseeable future. Do you have any idea right now, though, that down the road a piece the American people may have to face the problem of guns or butter?

THE PRESIDENT. I have not the slightest doubt but whatever it is necessary to face, the American people will face. I think that all of us know that we are now in the 5 ad month of the prosperity that has been unequaled in this Nation, and I see no reason for declaring a national emergency and I rejected that course of action earlier today when I made my decision.

I cannot foresee what next year, or the following year, or the following year will hold. I only know that the Americans will do whatever is necessary. At the moment we enjoy the good fortune of having an unparalleled period of prosperity with us, and this Government is going to do all it can to see it continue.

Which then got us the Volker destruction. It took some time, abetted by Nixon of course.

So now, according to Bone Spur Samurai^©, this isn't a forever war, his monuments to his monumental ego don't matter, tax breaks for the rich don't matter, and K-shape economy doesn't matter. The price of gas will drop through the floor, along with everything else, the instant the War is Won and Hormuz is instantly "open". He'll likely fall asleep then, just like at the Knicks came. The little people, black, brown, and white will take it in the neck. As usual. He, of course, gets all the butter.

Nausea

All this faux let's be nicey to each other over at CBS is making me vomit in my mouth. Here's all you need to know, to know why. It's from Pelley's interview

So I sit down, like, OK, let's talk about it. Tom accuses me of physically abusing Nick Bilton. This is a lie. I didn't come within 10 feet of Nick Bilton. In my life, I have never put my hands on anyone in anger. And when he was caught in that lie, he said, well, OK, I take that back. And I said, great.

Just like Emporer Nero The Donald^© (better than Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, and Napoleon Bonaparte) the Ellison flunkies make up shit that suits Bone Spur Samurai^©'s agenda. Anyone who believes that "60 Minutes" correspondents will have independence from the thugs up the chain of command is an idiot.

Ellison won't have to intervene with Weiss or Bilton... they're Bone Spur Samurai^©'s flunkies from the gitgo.

The Seer Speaks - part the first

The efforts of Weiss and Bilton were foretold either millennia ago, or just a few hundred years. Depends on how accurate history has been

I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Caesar. The noble Brutus
Hath told you Caesar was ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath Caesar answer'd it.

"60 Minutes" is buried. Stahl, Whitacker, and Wertheim may make it through the coming season. Were I a Kalshi addict, I'd bet no. the tell

(CBS News has said it plans to hire additional correspondents soon.)

If you really think these new folks will hold the MAGAnauts to account, well...

Ms. Stahl said their decision to stay would be reversed if Mr. Bilton did not live up to his promises. "We're more or less taking his word for it," she said. "But if what he was talking about in his statement doesn't work, we're going to leave."

Well... Lesley, don't let the door hit you in the ass too hard.