09 April 2015

The Truth Will Out

From the beginning of the QE exercise, I've been slapping the "inflation is coming!! inflation is coming!!" crowd with the reality: the Fed (nor the other central banks, which the Fed really isn't you know) hasn't been dropping Benjamins from 747s over Anytown, USA all this time. No, it's been giving it to corps. and .1%ers. The result is local inflation, the stock market in particular, and corp. balance sheets' cash position.

There are three drivers of inflation:
1) wage push (workers get more moolah for the same work; actually gotten less since the Crash)
2) cost push (materials and equipment go scarce, so their price goes up; California's water will soon do that to food)
3) demand pull (Ma and Pa Kettle everywhere come into a windfall of moolah, thus bidding up the price of everything)

QE did none of those, in the general economy. Finally, a mainstream pundit (minor leagues, but hey!) gets it. Took long enough.

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