04 July 2014

A Tasty Appletini

Once again, Apple steals from the best (well, they hope so anyway). And, once again (remember the Burberry Girl?), they've got it wrong.

Apple's level of self-absorbtion measures about a gallon, while self-awareness is, may be, a teaspoon. None of the devices that Apple makes, or is assumed to make (iWatch, iWhatever), is susceptible to being owned multiply. Nor will either this guy or the Burberry Girl be able to convince those with more money than sense to take that leap. For one thing, it would mean making distinctly different versions (not just color, 5C) for distinctly different milieus. Normal watches, such as TAG Heuer makes, fit that bill. Some are dressy, some are utilitarian, some are sporty, and so forth. Those will lots of excess cash can be persuaded to buy a different one for each different occasion. Apple has shown no temperment for such sort of product differentiation; to the contrary, they limit models in order to drive down BOM cost and drive up margin.

All the objective evidence says that wealth continues to concentrate, which makes Apple's TAM for the iWhatever no bigger than what it is for the iPhone. This is not a good thing for Apple, which, along with its zealots, has puffed up with pride at selling only to the upper 20% (or whatever%). The iWhatever is not likely to move the needle much, as I've asserted before. Unless Apple has exclusive access to some blingy hardware. Do they? Only The Shadow knows.

For now, as is said of that cocktail (or, in this case, the appletini),
One martini is all right. Two are too many, and three are not enough.
-- James Thurber

Apple's customers have to get past one for Apple to score big on the iWhatever. Place your bets.

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