20 July 2015

Captain Obvious [update]

Well, now that Apple is due to report tomorrow, the "how many Watch were sold, and is Watch worth having (at any price)" stories have reached tsunami levels. Some assert that all will be well, when Apple releases the next version of the Watch OS which will allow apps to run on the Watch, rather than just being a fancy X-term for one's iPhone. I don't buy that, in any case. In order to run apps, in particular the Killer App (whatever it should turn out to be; assuming it's not just a Loch Ness Monster), the Watch will need lots more battery power to make it through most of a day. As it is, reports agree that the only way to get 16 to 18 hours of use is to... not use it much.

A Killer App will mean heavy, near constant, use. Ain't no battery can do that. Yet. If ever.

This "Business Insider" piece is the most ironic I've seen, so far.
Developers still need to come up with clever ways to make use of a smaller screen strapped to your wrist instead of mimicking what you already have on your iPhone. I'm guessing we'll have to wait a lot longer before someone comes up with a truly innovative app for the Apple Watch.

Guess what? All those widgets in GUIs? They're clones of antique, analog devices. They're called radio buttons for a reason.

From Chuck Jones:
Revenue for the category that the Watch is reported was $2.6 billion vs. my projection of $3.7 billion based on 4 million Watches at an ASP of $550. If my calculations are close to correct Apple sold about 2 million Watches in the quarter, which would be very low compared to what analysts were expecting.

And, of course, what really matters is the trend which generated those 2 million watches. It's one story if they sold 1 million in the first two weeks, and 100,000 in the first two weeks and grew strongly from there. There's a reason Tim didn't provide more "color", as the anal-ists say.

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